So, after a few unlucky hands (or bad reads, whatevs) I'm getting scared of drawing hands. Not on the flop, but like turn/river. What's a general rule to solve this?

I know the probability of it actually happening and I know to be wary of turn/river shoves, I can't help getting worried now when I see any 3 of one suit and a guy betting into the turn.

cheers!

As with everything in poker, it depends on the villain. Gonna need some hand histories of said hands to see what went wrong.

Go with the best +EV and a read on the villain. Just because there's 3 to a flush on the board doesn't mean the person you're playing against has a flush...

I actually have a follow up math question on this, if anyone would be willing to help me on this that would be great. Suppose I'm holding any 2 suited cards. There's 3 cards of the same suit on the flop. What's the chance that another one come on the river or turn? And what are those odds when Villain has at least 1 of similar suit?

http://www.pokerology.com/images/les...outs-chart.gif

If my math is right:

52 cards in the deck, two in your hand leaves 50.
3 of that same suit come on the flop, leaving 47 possible cards to come.
Each suit has 13 cards; you have 2 and there are 3 on the board, leaving 8 of that suit in the deck or in the villains hand.

So the probability of a card of the flopped suit being in the villains hand is 8/47 or 14%. The approx chance of another of that same suit dropping on the turn OR the river is 8/47+8/46 or 34.5%.

Now the probability of the villain holding one of the same flopped suit AND that same suit turning or rivering is: (8/47 (villain hole card)) * 7/47+7/46 to account for one being in his or her hole cards. That comes to 15% chance that all three conditions are met.

I need someone to verify the math though.

The math above looks correct ...

Bad results are going to happen. You need to look at what you did before 'the draw hit'. Did you charge the draw to hit or were you scared it would hit and let him get there for free?

Poker is about value. If you think you have the best hand then you 'need' to charge others to catch up. You already seem to know that they are at a disadvantage so why let them off the hook? How many missed flush draws pay you off on the River? Not many ...

Bad results suck, but when you can 'know' you made the right play 'first' that will hopefully mean more to you than the bad result in the long run. Best way to handle that ...

"Nice hand, you got there" (in head .. "PLEASE keep calling your draws only getting 2 to 1!!") GL

Thanks so much for that post moxy. I'm slow with math, and you broke it down perfectly for me. I feel a lot better now.