I'm playing some sat to sat to mtt sats. What are the odds of winning the main MTT from playing a small sat winning that and going on winning the bigger sat and then playing the main MTT and winning that? I've won mtts before by just playing 1 sat into the main mtt and then winning the main mtt but never from playing 2 sats and then binking the main.

I kind of like playing sats and trying to qualify to play into bigger events.

If players are equally good:
For example:
sat1 (10 players: 2 players qualify to sat2):1/5
sat2 (10 players: 2 players qualify to main event):1/5
main event(100 players: to win)

Equation: (10/2) * (10/2) * 100=2500

1/2500=0,0004
in percentage: 0,04%
In this example that i wrote you have 0,04% to win the main event from sat1.

Added later-same additional calcs:
In the example i wrote:
to qualify for main event from sat1:1/25=0,04=4%
to cash main event from sat1(let us say 12,5%(one of 8) of people win cash awards):1/(25*8)=0,005=0,5%

less than 1% chance to even cash the main event?

These numbers are true for example that I wrote. So you could see how it is calculated. You have to put your numbers for sat1 and sat2 and main event you are trying to play.

I think I will stick to PLO.

That is taking the enormous assumption that players are of the same skill, including in the main event, which blatantly isn't the case given those that buy in directly are going to be substantially better than those satting in (indeed, the existence of qualifiers in events like the million has been the only reason decent level MTTs are +EV for a huge chunk of regs). That you're asking this question means we can throw this assumption out of the window and into a wood chipper

Calculations written above are for players that are equally good. Now let us calculate the numbers for a player A. Player A is playing better poker than anybody in the poker world (year 2020). Realistic number for better than average player (even the best player in the world) will be lower than the numbers i will get in next calculations, but bigger than calculations which I got in calculations when players are equally good. ITMs in this calculations are not reached by the best pros(I took better IMTs than best pros are having).

Calculations:
sat1 (10 players: 2 players qualify to sat2):2/10; Player A: 2*1,5/10=3/10
sat2 (10 players: 2 players qualify to main event):2/10; Player A: 2*1,5/10=3/10
main event(100 players: to win);1/100;Player A:1*2,5/100=2,5/100

Equation: (10/3) * (10/3) * (100/2,5)=444,444

1/444,444=0,0026
in percentage: 0,26%
Player A has 0,26% to win the main event from sat1.

More calcs for Player A:
to qualify for main event from sat1:1/11,111=0,09=9%
to cash main event from sat1 (let us say 12,5%(one of 8) of people win cash awards):1/(11,111*4)=0,0225=2,25%

To sum everything: If you are better than average:

And this is true:
sat1 (10 players: 2 players qualify to sat2)
sat2 (10 players: 2 players qualify to main event)
main event(100 players;12,5% players cash)

Than this:

You will win main tournament from sat1:0,04%<x<0,26%
You will cash main tournament from sat1:0,5%<x<2,25%
You will qualify for main tournament from sat1:4%<x<9%