Quote:
Originally Posted by mugenjin
Sustaining 25% at any level is not possible. I don't think you'll find many a sample size of 1000 sng's or more with over a 25% ROI for single table tournaments.
Beating 300 sng's at 25% is not what I mean by sustainable.
We're talking minimum 1k sng's.
Check out the FAQ in the STT forum .
Well, if 100k hands is a valid sample size and a 9 or 10 player SnG averages about 50 hands, then it is more like 2k SnGs required to show sustainability.
That being said, I don't know why you claim sustaining 25% is not possible at any level. The STT Forum FAQ shows expected ROI of good players at 4% for $335s, steadily increasing to 18% ROI for $3.40s. OP was asking about ROIs for micro SnGs. I don't see why we can't extrapolate a better than 25% ROI for a good player for buyins of less than $1.
I do agree that we shouldn't expect to actually find many examples of anyone sustaining an ROI of 25% over a statistically significant sample, but not because it is impossible. Rather because anyone who can maintain an ROI of 25% for even 300 SnGs is going to have made so much money relative to his stakes played, but so little money relative to the value of his time invested, that he is bound to move up and will eventually move up to a level where 25% is not sustainable.
A couple of years ago I gave a few moments of thought to the problem of how one could tell whether one was playing well without having a statistically valid sample size. I concluded that you just can't tell for sure, but you
can get some indications. Generally you can play well but do less well than expected if any of the following measurable events is happening over a period of time:
- you are getting bad starting hands more often than normal
- the board hits your hand less than normal
- you get sucked out on more than normal
That is not a complete list of the factors that contribute to variance, but it is a substantial part of it, I think.
So I decided to measure these things for my own hand histories. Over less than 250 SnGs in my favorite site's second lowest SnGs I have an ROI of 49%. During that time my hit-my-hand and opponents' suck-out rates have been just slightly less than average, but my starting hands have been quite a bit worse than average. I therefore have to conclude that my high ROI is not entirely attributable to variance, and that I ought to be able to sustain a significant portion of it at this level.
I am maintaining this ROI without being anything close to a poker god. (I rate "average poker player" at Donkeytest.com.) I do think that what I
do know, combined with my playing style makes me better-suited than many to crush the lower level SNGs.
To address OP, I would say expected ROI depends on two main factors: how good you are, and what level you are playing at. For lower level micro SnGs, I think 25% is quite sustainable. For SnGs of $3.40 and above, the STT forum FAQ seems like the best source of an answer.
Last edited by DoTheMath; 05-23-2008 at 07:52 PM.