What counts - perception or reality??

I still suck at poker, but I think I get the concept that you put your opponent on a hand or a range, and if you think you are ahead - bet.

So what if you think that your opponent is calling with crap, but there are plenty of decent hands that would beat you.

I shoved on the turn, and was called.

Using PokerStove, it turned out that I was a 70% favorite when I shoved against my opponents actual cards, but if I had been against any of the top 20% of pre-flop cards (again according to pokerstove) I would have been a 35%-65% dog.

So what really matters here. What I thought he was calling with, or the best X% range?

(I don't think the actual cards matter, or the final result - but I think you can guess - but I will post if needed)

when you are making a decision you need to consider a range of hands someone could possibly be on.

often especially at the micros people will turn there hands or at least their ranges face up for you with their actions.

You can find some really good info on hand reading and ranges in the COTW forums and what not I will get you link

This is a hand reading post by Pokey which is pretty amazing stuff. Also in the micro full ring, and the micro stakes pl/nl forums you should read the sticky posts as they have very solid info to read

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Number=8629256

will definatly read that ...

To add some context, my hand was on the bubble of a 9 man SnG

really need to post hand history for us to be able to help you

Post hand without villain's cards / results and we'll go from there.

OK here you go ...

Hero (SB): t2870
Villain (BB): t5560
CO: t3530
BTN: t1240

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with 7 4

Hero: SB 100
Villain: BB 200
CO: Fold
BTN: Fold
Hero: Raise to 600
Villain: call 600

Flop: J 7 Q

Hero: Raise 600
Villain: Call 600

Turn: Q

Hero: All-in 1770
Villain: Call 1770

My read was that with a call on the flop that villain missed with something like Ax, KT, so I shoved ...

Am I ahead here?

No...And you're OOP with junk. Fold PF.

My question, is on the bubble, not being the short stack. Why you would even raise preflop with 7 4 off, knowing that even if the guy calls, your risking 600 chips on rags?

i think id fold preflop. if i raised, i think id c/f the flop. if i bet the flop and got called.... well idk what i would do on the turn probs c/f. although ur stealing, which is good, i think this is a little too loose because you're in the sb, and if called u will have to play the entire hand oop


in response to your OP, you dont just use X% of hands in stove, because most of those x% of hands will re-raise preflop or something. like u cant just include AK/ AA/ KK etc because he wont be flatting them

One fold pre-flop.
Two its a extremely drawing flop so i wouldnt even bet at it, plus you have a basically dead kicker becuase its so low.

Just fold or check fold.

just to add, i would rather have a better hand when trying to steal the chip leaders blinds, who has the luxury of defending lighter.

(you can ignore this advice on saturday nights though, particularly if i'm on your left )

Thanks for all the replies. I read them and will hopefully learn from them, but they almost all focused on the play before the turn, whereas I was asking about the all-in at the turn.

That's why I put him on something like Ax or KT by the turn.

It turns out that I was "correct" when we flipped over the cards and I was ahead. My real question is does it matter? Was I wrong to put him on that range?

For the pre-flop bet, IIRC, the table was on the bubble, lots of pre-flop calls, but very few raises. I got two folds before me, and I thought it was a chance to steal with ATC.

The next bet was probably taking the concept of c-betting a little too far !

I'll go in PF with 47o .... just for sh**s and grins

This is really bad lol

just go all in