If I have a PP for sake of arguement let's say ThTc.

Flop comes K37.

What is the percentage that villain hits the overcard to get a higher pair? Do you think this would depend on PF action or ... a king in this situation is meant to represent an overcard to hero's PP.I also realize that the percentage will be different depending on the cards meaning if I have KK its lower chance that he flops an A. And if I have tens its higher that he hits AQKJ but it should go up exponentially per card?

It's going to depend on the range that you're putting villain on, and that is, of course, going to depend on the preflop action (as well as other stuff like any reads you have on the guy).

The best way I know to play around with this stuff is to use a program called Flopzilla. You give villain a range, specify the flop, and your own hole cards, and Flopzilla gives you a distribution showing how often villain is going to be flopping different kinds of hands.

Here's a couple of examples:



In the top example, we put villain on a pretty tight range, and in the bottom example we give him a much wider range.

In both cases we mark T,T as 'dead' (they're our hole cards).

With the tight range on a K37 flop, he's flopping top pair or better about 34% of the time.

With the much wider range, he's flopping top pair or better less than 17% of the time.

It also tells us how often he'll flop various draws (close to zero on this dry flop, of course).

Thank you for the worthwhile post I will look into it.