Hello guys,
What does the My C All-In Adj stat in PT4 tells us ? I see people are always comparing it against the green line (My C Won) and then saying if they run above/below EV.
As an example: I played today a session at NL25 and in the first hand i got AA. I 3bet preflop and get two callers (one shortstacker). Flop comes 7d4hTd. All three players inclunding me went all-in at the flop. One player has 100BB (Hand: Ad2d) and the shortstacker has 30BB (Hand: QQ). Turn comes Jh and river As. Also I have won a 230BB pot.
After the hand I looked at the graph window. My C Won shows 122BB and My C All-In Adj 33BB for this hand. At the flop I was the equity favorite, so it was the right decision. Why I am running then above EV? Since people use this stat to determine the real skill level of a player it does not make sense to me. If I would played this hand exactly 1000 times in the same way I would played 1000 time correctly with respect to the flop equities. But when you would show the graph to another player he would said that you are running hot and probably having also a lot of luck.
When all the money went in, you had about 57% equity, which is the share of the pot you expect to win on average in the long term. In this instance, you won 100% of the pot. That's quite a lot more than expected, so - for this individual sample - you ran above expectation.
If you'd lost the pot, you'd be way below EV, (0% of the pot is much less than 57%) because you would have lost 100bb instead of profiting by the expected 33bb or whatever was the expectation, given your equity.
Running good doesn't just mean "Sucking out". It also can mean "Winning more often than expected when all in as a favourite".
One sample hand is totally meaningless though.
