Rob, I think you'd prefer the simpler, looser "math" rules instead. Also, I think it's not clear if you're already in understanding of how to count your outs in various situations.

Anyway, if it helps (I was inspired seeing Shick respond!), here's my "simplification" of it since at the very beginning I too was sort of lost as to what exactly "4:1" odds meant and how that related to the bet I had to call.

So, first off, I want to make clear that there are really two ways of calculating the odds. The more mathematical odds expressions that you normally see, and then the "quick and dirty" percentage method. To be honest, I always use the latter unless it's a really unique situation, and if I want to discount cards that I believe are out (but even then, no one decision ever need be THAT precise where one percentage point is going to hurt you).

So let's do the quick and dirty way first, actually. That is the basis of the "rule of 2 and 4" that this thread was originally named.

So let's say you're on the flop, and you have KQ suited (hearts). The board is A-3-8, with two hearts (the ace being one of them). You are sure Villain has a pair of aces or better (like with AK), so let's assume you know you have to make the flush and only the flush to win (there is also the chance of making a runner runner straight, but let's not include that, although actually that DOES effectively add one out's worth of probability to your hand's chance of winning, which many people underestimate the power of).

So you assume there are nine hearts left in the deck, because you have two hearts in your hand and there are two on the board. (Furthermore, if you put your opponent on AK, you know he does NOT have any hearts - but this should not be used in odd calculations, only the cards you see; although in stud, you would be very likely to calculate how an opponent's hole cards might affect your own draw odds.)

Using the rule of 2, this means that with one more card coming (i.e., the turn), you have a NINE outs X 2 PERCENTAGE chance of hitting. So, 9 X 2 = 18%. This means that 18% of the time, you will hit your flush on the turn. In other words, if you dealt the turn (after reshuffling the remaining cards each time) 10 times, you would except to hit your flush ONE time out of FIVE. (or for every 1 time you hit, you will miss 4 times - hence the other odds ratio form of "1:4")

Using rule of 4, you just multiply by 4 (i.e., two times two, since you are seeing two cards to come), and that is your odds of hitting by the river, so ~36% (in reality it's a bit higher, 37.2 I believe - of course, some people take this to mean 50%, and treat any flush draw like they're even money, which is baaaaad ).

OKAY - so perhaps you already knew all this, and your question is just on how this applies to pot.

So, if you're using the percentage method (which I did when starting out live because it was easier and because I really wanted to get into the mental and hand reading aspects of the game), it's easy to see if you have pot odds to call. Based on your flush draw, you know you will hit the flush on the turn 18% of the time. All you have to do is figure out if you're putting in LESS or MORE than 18% of the total pot.

Now here's where you have to be careful (and where I used to think I was making a mistake at times) - normally when you do ratio odds, you set up the ratio as MY CALL : WHAT I CAN WIN, where the latter part is the pot in the middle of the table PLUS your opponent's bet.

But when you do it percentage-based, you are calculating what percentage your call is of the TOTAL pot, i.e., MY CALL / (MONEY IN MIDDLE + OPPONENT'S BET + MY CALL).

This might seem more difficult, but in reality, I find it much easier (but others find the ratio odds easier). Part of the reason one might prefer ratio odds is because in limit games, the pot is always expressed in terms of # of bets, so actually the ratio is always at the top of your mind automatically (well, for people who started playing limit; for me, I started with NL, so for me it's always percentage based).

So going back to the hand example, you have a nut flush draw, and you have 18% to hit on the turn. SO let's say the pot in the middle of the table is $50 so far. You check to your opponent, and he bets the full pot, $50. What is your percentage of the pot if you call? Easy - first, what's the total amount - $50 + $50 + $50, right? (money in middle plus his bet plus the call you have to make) Now, what percentage of that total pot is your call? Again, pretty easy - 50/150 is 33%. So based on the odds of making your flush on the turn, you do NOT have pot odds (of course, if your opponent has enough money behind, then you might have implied odds - this means you need to know you can get paid enough when you hit to make it worth your while to draw).

Now let's look at two more examples:

- instead of your opponent betting $50, he only bets $15. So now your percentage to call is $15/($50+$15+$15), or 15/80 - to me this is easy to figure out as being roughly 19%. You do have odds to call.

NOTE: If you ran this scenario through the river millions of times (and there was no further betting), this might not be a profitable call long-term, because you will encounter cases where you make the flush on the turn with the board pairing, and he then makes a full house and you lose, but those will be counter-balanced by the times you make a runner runner straight instead of a flush, which will happen considerably more often than him making a full house while you simultaneously make a flush. But note if you had something like K-6 hearts, you have no runner-runner straight potential, so this slight difference could shift it to being a fold (assuming no implied odds from further betting, of course).

- second scenario - the opponent bets the original amount, $50, but he is ALL-IN. This means you will get to see the turn AND the river, with no more calling to see the river. So here, you clearly must calculate your odds of making the flush by the river. We said this was the Rule of 4, so 9 times 4 is 36%, and your percentage of the pot that you're calling by putting in $50 is only 33%, so this is a very profitable call long-term. You clearly have the best of it.

NOTE: even here, this assume opponent has one pair; if opponent instead has a set, then it becomes more towards breakeven, because the board cannot pair in the process, because you then lose no matter what to his full house.

Man this was long-winded! I just get excited talking about this stuff.

Shick if you see anything wrong about what I'm saying about, please let me know. I've just always thought percentage odds were a lot easier for no limit games, and it seems this is where Rob is looking to apply the knowledge.

lets not forget about implied odds which are imo more important

Wow ClubKid, that was a long post!


It's perfectly fine to use percentages to figure our equity. Players seem to like using the method you've described, as it keeps coming up in this thread. As I stated above, percentages and ratios are two ways of saying the same thing. And they are easily converted.

For example:

Odds - % -- 5:1 = 1/(5+1) = 16.7%
% - Odds -- 18% = (1/.18)-1 = 4.55:1

Mathematically, they mean the same thing so the only reason for using one over the other is personal preference and ease of calculation. Personally, I find using ratios easier since I know what they are in most situations and it's easy for me to then figure the pot odds in my head and compare the two.

Also keep in mind that we don't have to be extremely precise with this, especially at the table where action is happening fast. If you're in a very marginal situation that is mathematically only slightly profitable, then other factors like table dynamics can easily influence your decision more than your naked odds.

Finally, none of this accounts for the rake, which can cause a slightly profitable situation to be unprofitable because the house is going to take your profit.

Right, some people were "brought up" knowing the ratios of various situations, others think of it more as the outs (5-outer, 9 outer, etc.).

Yeah I was just intending to write a two line response, and it became a monster! Felt like contributing since I got some really good discussions going on in some other areas lately on the forums, I guess!

Rob, the other classic advice would be this - anytime you're in a situation where you're not sure you're getting the right odds, remember the details, and when you get home or back to your room (if you're playing live) or when you're done playing (online), figure out the math for it. Then you'll know that situation cold the next time you see it. This will do wonders for other parts of your game, because you'll also start analyzing opponents' drawing odds, and you'll start to hand read better, for example, when you see the different common scenarios (like Ace high flush draw really being a 12-outer in a lot of circumstances, or a pair and an open end straight draw vs. a pair and an inside straight draw, and whether the two pair and trip outs are any good).

Okay thanks guys for your feedback ... ummm I am going to read over your posts and hopefully I can finally get this down!!! I also gave up before actually learning how do figure our my percentages to win and all of that!! Thank you for your help!

Oh by the way what is villain?

The person the hero is fighting, or in poker the person you're fighting against in a pot.

The only one that's poker related is FD, which is just Flush Draw.

GTG = good to go
OP = original poster
LM... um, beats me

Check the BQ FAQ for more info.

okay cool =)

Thank you guys!! =) .... How is postflop different from pre-flop?

In regards to what?

Also check your Private Messages.

club kid your response was great .... I have been reading and re-reading it so hopefully I will catch on to it .... what is a good way to practice mastering this technique?? actually getting a deck of cards with some chips and setting up hands myself?

Play lots of hands and evaluate your play after your sessions. Look for spots where you may have drawn against the odds.

Also, read the strategy threads for the stake you play and look for hands where you can figure the outs and odds.

okay thanks for the tips =) do you think pokertracker3 is something I should invest in to improve my game shick?

Yeah, Pokertracker will help you keep track of your win rate as well as how you and your opponents play. I'd highly recommend it or Holdem Manager. Personally I use Holdem Manager.

Either software is +EV like hell. PT3 was best investment I've made in my poker game yet.

Great!! Thanks a ton guys =)

Rob, you could use Card Player's calculator to calculate the percentage chance of a hand winning - you would select two players, then select the cards that you have, the opponent has, and the board has. Keep in mind this will be slightly different from the results you calculate, because you obviously don't really know what the opponent's cards are, so some general assumptions are always made.

Anyway when you fill in the cards, it will tell you the percentage chance of your hand winning by the river (unfortunately they don't show the odds for the turn, but usually it's just roughly half the number they give). This is actually a great tool to play around with in general, I was fascinated years ago when I first discovered the differences in preflop odds between different hands (like 2-2 vs. AK is a good bit weaker than a mid pair or better against AK, because 2-2 can be counterfeited by a two pair board, like 6-6-8-8-J - the AK wins these boards; also, TT and up are even strong because they take away some outs from boards where the AK could develop a straight).

URL is below:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

There are other tools too probably, this is the only one I could think of off the top of my head.

Holdem Manager is pretty amazing. I will say you should focus on analyzing your own play more with it first though (i.e., don't get too carried away with its ability to show you stats on your opponents on sites where that's allowed - you should still be playing by your own knowledge of odds, the players, and your own instinct mostly).

I like Pokerstove better

I dont understand poker stove =(

I guess card players tool will prolly be similar though ... I'll just have to fool around with it some I guess!

Yeah Poker Stove's great, but you have to understand the concept of grouping hands into ranges and having "equity" against a range (well you don't have to, it can still just calculate your odds of drawing, but it's much more powerful than that). That's why I only mentioned the simpler Card Player calc (plus it's fun to use since it's "TV-style", giving you the percentage chances of winning for each hand you deal in).

ya it seems a little easier for now but I eventually do want to learn poker stove .... ummmm but is there a certain order of hands that I should be learning percents?? or do I just make up random hands??

I wouldn't spend time memorizing preflop values of hands vs. other hands (and if you do memorize, it's more useful to memorize in groups, like mid pair vs unsuited big ace vs. suited big ace (big ace means AK or AQ)).

Just play your game normally, and write down the hands you had where you felt you weren't sure of the odds. Input those hands and the board into the calculator or Poker Stove, and see if your estimate of your odds to hit your draw were close to the correct odds (percentage) given by either software.

okay thanks =)