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Is it possible to run bad that long? Is it possible to run bad that long?

09-10-2021 , 11:33 AM
Hi! I am playing 5/10 cents on poker stars. My goal was to move up after 100-150k hands. I had solid winrate of 5-6bb playing zoom and regular tables. I knew I was trowing away about 4-5bb per 100 because i was calling to much. And was pretty happy with the fact, knowing i had alot of room for improvement bb-wise by correcting a mistake i was already aware of. But as you can see in the pictures after about 90k hands i was starting to run really bad having almost identical stats. So my question is, do you think this really is just variance or should i look at some other stats which are crucial but i am not aware of it.






Here are the pictures from my report in PT4.

Thank you for your answers!

Last edited by Sheep86; 09-10-2021 at 06:26 PM. Reason: images
Is it possible to run bad that long? Quote
10-01-2021 , 12:32 AM
Be honest to yourself and ask yourself if you have played differently after starting to lose? If you trust that you played the same way, then it is variance. If not, then you changed your strategy and played way worse. Only you know that. Which one is it?
Is it possible to run bad that long? Quote
10-09-2021 , 06:41 PM
Identify your leaks and adjust.
Is it possible to run bad that long? Quote
10-15-2021 , 08:11 AM
50k hands -2bb/100 after 80k hands of 5bb/100 isn't usual, but possible. I remember I ran in PLO micro zoom -6bb/100 below EV for 25k hands, so there it wouldn't be a miracle to be at -2bb/100 at 50k or even at 80k, that's something as a graph you might like to take a look into, if it ran bad at some point especially.

If one has a more or less fixed strategy, it is easy to see if one is playing the same as before, until one is blind to the tilt factors, that might be the case especially as a new player.

The zoom games are not as profitable, if at all profitable when one is learning, and especially in NLH, it isn't anywhere near real NLH at micros. You did adjust correctly, and had a reason to expect doing better. If they spotted you over folding, it is another thing, but those pools are probably large enough for that not to be the reason why you ran worse.

Isn't there a rakeback also these days, like 15%? Overall, might still look good, depending on the graph and where you played.
Is it possible to run bad that long? Quote

      
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