The goal of this post is to outline my perspective coming in as mostly a noobie into the poker "industry" and what I've learned not only from myself, but others in what is possible for noobies, can one still be successful at poker and what is the long term health of the game. I will attempt to keep this as concise as possible. I will also provide cliff notes at the bottom

To mods reading, I'm not sure where this is supposed to go and I am fine moving it, but yeah let me know. Let's jump into it.

Background:
Played poker in my teens for fun, even freerolled my bankroll up to $200 in the late 00s
It faded from tv and it faded from my life as I focused on other things
I saw some Doug Polk videos on my YT feed about this time last year and I got hooked again, no knowledge, no nothing (no idea what RFI, PFA, OOP or anything like that was last year, never mind 3betting, VPIP or cbetting)
As a result I worked my way to playing everything from hu sngs, spins, cash, but I always focused mostly on MTTs
I actually worked my bankroll up from $2-300 to 2.5k with just a bit of online studying before I went through a 60 BI downswing and I invested in training
I've gone through Upswing's cash lab, Upswing's MTT course, Janda's books, coffeeyay's course and RYE course (recently)

So here it is, my thoughts on MTTs:

Very profitable sub $10, especially if you are willing to buy RYE and no I don't make money saying that and there are many criticisms I could level at them, but they do not undo the amazing product they provide, here are my results @ $5ABI and 2100 entrants



These tournies are as bingofestish as ever and people have no f*cking idea what they're doing, PLO is even worse and despite not having any training material to go over I was able to absolutely crush during the 200 games I recently played



I think the real question is can you build a bankroll with ABC poker playing MTTs? I would say it is feasible, but you should at least watch the free high stakes tourny replays on youtube and build your ranges around what the best in the field do. Also basic knowledge of ICM and what you can push in sb v bb will go a long way.

I would not bother with the Upswing course as Praytush doesn't even play online and having gone through it, it is way too wide for lower stakes and especially online, but if I'm being honest I think the best way to ENSURE you beat online stakes is to buy the RYE course and consider it a long term investment.

However, from personal experience, there is almost 0 chance people will be able to beat $20ABI+ without serious training investment.

Spins/hu sngs:

Coffeeyay's course is not enough to beat spins, at least not at partypoker, although that might change because of the antes in play and I personally never did well in hu sngs when I started playing poker, but that might tell you that even at $5-20 stakes, it's extremely competitive that ABC poker and ok knowledge will not get you far at all

Cash:
10NL is still soft AF and with ABC poker you should be winning, with more in depth poker knowledge you should be crushing, this was done in the last 2 weeks



I didn't really play much 25NL to formulate an opinion, but 10NL is MUCH softer from what I've seen, I honestly think that it might be more profitable to play 10NL than play 25NL, but I only played 1-2k hands so what do I know? But putting up over 20 bb/100 at 10NL seems feasible if you play at the right hours everyday as you'll have all sorts of punts and gifts into you just for showing up daily and also don't mass table beyond 3, at 25NL it seemed almost rare for that to happen.

I did play around 10k hands at 50NL HU recently, no seat scripts just playing whoever wanted to play on Party, so I think it still can be beaten, but it's definitely tough, although I did get the hang of it more and more as I got used to HU ranges (RYE's specifically) and I started to learn what adjustments to make v what type of player



This might have seemed like a bit of a lengthy introduction, but I did want people to know where I am coming from so that when I make my next assertions, it's not just from some guy who dabbled very lightly into poker. I invested very heavily into studying the best info out there (even payed a coach for a few hours), also buying a HUD and poured everything I had into it due to still being young enough that it could have had good long term ROI.

So onto the actual question Is the Poker Dream dead in 2018?

Well that depends, the dream of depositing $10-100 and turning it into 100s of gs, I would say being able to quickly move up stakes is going to be impossible without serious $ and time investment into studying, even a decent salary of $40k+ (with you controlling your time by playing poker) would be very tough without a 2+ year investment into actual grinding.

Is the dream of grinding 10-50NL and living abroad dead? I would say no, honestly if you want to put in serious volume at those stakes, you'd likely be able to live in South East Asia or Eastern Europe or even Latin America and do "ok," although your long term prospects when or if you decide to re enter society do not look great. Basically, depending on how hard you want to grind I do think $60-100 is feasible at those stakes, whether in profit or rakeback, so if making 16-35k and living abroad while controlling your hours is a dream of yours, poker IMO is still alive and well.

However, we can use the following examples of how tough poker has gotten up top:



Basically a decade and a half later, you won't see anything close to that at any of the bigger sites at those stakes and yeah you can say "find the small websites," but 1.Do you know if you're gonna get paid? 2.Do you know if they won't just ban you for crushing? 3.How feasible is that for everyone? That is the level of play that I would say is common at 10NL and especially below that, but definitely not at 25-50 or 100NL.

This is the real problem with information, it travels too fast and thus neutralizes the advantage from the people willing to seek it out as everyone gets the trickle down effect and it begins to perfect all games as more and more training, streams and just general poker information becomes available

Example two:

http://playerscope.com/jaimestaples/pokerstars

One of the largest streamers is down around 50k in the past 2.25 years and this isn't even at ludicrous stakes, but you can see how quickly the game turns in moving from winning 50k in a year to being down the next 2.25.

Example three:

http://playerscope.com/tonkaaaa/pokerstars

Probably the most extreme example, but Tonka hasn't won in FIVE YEARS, although I'm sure with RB he made good money 4-5 years ago grinding sngs, but over the last 2.25 years he's down 150k+ showing you what happens when you don't study and think you can just crush at the highest stakes online. I don't know if Tonka could even beat $150 ABI at this point, but he is someone that 100% needs to move down and get in the lab. You can also see how proficient Doug and Praytush are at online MTTs as he is on the Upswing team and this has done nothing for his results, no hate to those two, but if they are going to be charging people nearly 1k for their course, I would expect much better and much better from people currently "working with them."

Example four:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBPLt21zU68

Karlencho is a decent poker player from what I've seen doing it the right way and putting in the hours daily, but if we're being honest, the poker dream obviously would entail making more than $350 in nearly 6 months, especially at very low stakes

Example five:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=136

Someone who was considered one of the best players in the world at one point earned about 3k per month which IMO could've been 4k+ without the stringent bankroll management, but then again I don't know if he could grind that hard if he wasn't under the constraints of the prop bet so it might've cancelled out anyways

Example six:

https://www.upswingpoker.com/10000-challenge/

Somebody did the math and basically Doug who is STILL one of the best players in the world was earning minimum wage during his bankroll challenge. This is even more telling than all of the above, now let's be VERY clear, Doug Polk can still destroy the lower stakes, BUT it's not the destruction you would think it would be. It's not Lebron playing v high school students which is basically the stake come down for Doug to where he was at. I also think his lack of finish in this challenge tells it all, he knows he can beat it, but it's not like he is going to do it easily, the games are tougher and tougher everywhere.

Lessons from the examples:

The best in the world are still beating the game and could live comfortably outside of the western world and very modestly in it, but they are not beating them in the way you would expect the best in the world to, the skill gap has closed and even someone like Doug Polk recognizes this as he gives us an excuse of it not being the best use of his time to do the challenge....

As if it was ever the best use of his time, he probably thought it was going to be easier than this and know realizes that this challenge could take more than a few months and maybe even half a year, ESPECIALLY if he was doing it with PROPER bankroll management which foregoing somewhat defeats the purpose as the person depositing $100 can't always "just take shots" and not feel the wrath of consequences like Doug.

The people who a laymen might look at as the pinnacle (streamers who make money from streaming) of poker are actually LOSING players and some of them losing quite badly. None of this bodes well for anyone, but it does need to be said as to give people a REALISTIC OUTLOOK on poker and what is possible.


Cliffs:

The poker dream to make more than 50k a year online FROM SCRATCH is dead or even 100k+ is completely dead unless you have an IQ that puts you in the .01% and even then the question of why you're playing poker comes up (not realistic for most people)
With good investment in poker training, poker software, hard work and above average intelligence, you CAN still likely make 20-30k a year from scratch, but even then it'll be NO breeze
I would personally suggest that IF you want to try this, be willing to invest 2-3k in training BEFORE you even play poker, you might be able to beat the very lowest games if you do everything right by yourself, but this will still cost you 10s if not 100s of hours of studying on your own so it may end up costing you more per hr when you factor in that information packages are basically buying condensed information
As a note, I am not saying that 50k is the magic number or that it can't be done at all, but I am merely describing what I feel is an average representation based on MY EXPERIENCE, the experiences of THE BEST IN THE WORLD, the experiences of those that used to BEAT THE GAME PRETTY WELL and the experiences of others coming into it cold

Long term prognosis and suggestions:

Ban seat scripts, these destroy the poker eco system and ensure that money only flows to a select few people
Have industry wide security investments in terms of banning, targeting and prosecuting botters to the fullest extent of the law
Cap multi tabling at 6-8
Have rules in place to keep stakes fun and interesting by FORCING people to battle and not allowing certain high stakers to play below a certain threshold or at least not put in serious volume at low stakes
Try and grow the game in China and India, IF we managed to get the middle class of these two countries FULLY online, we could see one of the biggest poker booms we've experienced
Continue to work towards re-legalization in America which if brought back online could give us another mini boom
If you are decent online, playing live might be better as you'd likely have a huge edge just knowing the basics, at least at 1/2

Anyways, hopefully there was something of use at least in terms of perspective in this and hopefully it wasn't too rambly, I will be in this thread to go back and forth as far as people's thoughts.

Just scanned this as I'm at work at the moment. Looks interesting. Nice post.

Very nice post!

To emphasize on it, since the hay days of online poker are now that far behind us:
“The poker dream” never meant that people who put in the work were able to make a couple dollars. It was about players without any previous knowledge or special talent being able to make (significantly) more money than they could make with a (relevant) college degree.

“The poker dream” was starting out with a $50 deposit and turning that into a $50+/hour job or side income within 1-2 years. There are still players who are able to live that dream, but those are a chosen few who are both very smart and willing to put in the work. Back then, one of those two characteristics was plenty to get there.

That's highly motivating, thank you.

Operative word: few

Point 1: Being very smart and willing to work hard is still not a guaranteed road to "success".

sorry
see point 1

Thank you, hopefully it can be of use to people.

Yeah exactly, while I'm personally from one of these impoverished 2nd world countries and I would be fine living there since I know the language, people and culture, I can't imagine it's exactly a "dream" for westerners to move away from their friends, family and communities so they can have a bit more freedom earning $12-15 an hour.

And yeah, you could include someone like Kevin Martin who is actually a winning streamer as a good example for people, but he is a rare person as we see with streamers and even top ones most are losing. Hell even when Lex had his playerscope up, his 1st year playing online (2 years ago), he was BREAK EVEN....a guy who crushed at very high stakes is break even at $40 ABI, if that doesn't tell you something.....I don't know what will.

But maybe there is hope for the future should America, India and China come online somehow.

but those are a chosen few who are both very smart and willing to put in the work and make very many sacrifices in their lifestyles.

fyp

op, only really quickly scan read, but I think you are not far off the facts. Nice post.

Very interesting analysis, thank you 7OAD.

I find it surprising that Tonkaaaa isn't a winning player. He comes across as someone who beats the games, but I guess he doesn't. I knew Staples hasn't been a winning player for years.

It's not surprising that these guys go to great lengths to hide their results. It would destroy their public perception and streaming income if it was widely known that they were losing players. They have to create the illusion that they are winners, for the sake of their streaming business and for people to buy pieces of their action.

I was also amazed that Doug was finding the challenge surprisingly difficult. However, whenever I said this in his stream chat, the only replies I got were "hater", "variance" or "he's not a 6max expert". This guy is one of the best in the world at 6max and he's struggling to beat micro stakes. That is saying something.

Thank you sir.

Good point there too, it also defeats the purpose of playing poker if you are putting in 12+ hour days to escape from the 9-5 hustle as even when you factor in travel, it's just easier to do the IRL job, especially if the 12+ hour days don't guarantee a good income.

YW, glad you enjoyed it.

He does, but he's also way too loose and too much of a station when I compare his play v someone like Ben from RYE, so he gets smashed based on his image. Basically he'll do these ad hoc justifications for his loose calls where the player is generally aggro, but his own image of being loose and a station isn't taken into consideration and he ends up making mediocre calls along the way.

Yeah I agree, to be fair to him, he doesn't have the biggest and softest sites around, so perhaps it would be easier on another site, but if he's not able to beat 25/50/100NL with relative ease, it's not going to be much easier. I unironically believe that the best thing for him would've been to 5-6 table 10NL and post up 25+bb and then towards the final $2-3k of the challenge take some MTT shots and move up to higher stakes.

The whole thing doesn't bode well though, the fact that he wasn't able to just beast through it and then gave up looks very very soft and I know he can say "BUT MUH TIME!!!" but this guy is already a multi millionaire that can do whatever he wants, besides it's not as if we're forcing him to undergo water torture, he's locked in to play his favorite and best activity and he STILL can't do it.

Part of the reason poker is great is that it allows greater flexibility to maintain your lifestyle. There is no sacrifice of lifestyle at all.

....when compared to other entrepreneurs getting started and running their own businesses.

When compared to almost anybody that is not unemployed.

Plenty of streamers on twitch beating 100nl zoom for5+ bb/100 while 4 tabling. That's a decent living even in the west. Some are doing it at 200 zoom too.

That's if you take their word at face value. Graphs can easily be faked, people can use insignificant sample sizes etc. You only know for sure if you have access to a cash game tracking site or you have a HUD database of thousands of hands on a particular player.

anybody that makes absolute statements sets themselves up to be shot down.

I've read dozens of posts from live poker professionals who describe the most godawful conditions in some casinos (sitting next some stinking degen for example).

I've read and followed PGCs from winning online professionals that play only from like 8pm to 4am, and always at weekends.

I've read a quote from a top pro saying to make a living at poker you need to be emotionally dead inside.

If these don't sound like sacrifices to you fair enough...you are obviously cut out for it...crack on and good luck.

For many people, playing poker at times when everybody else is asleep or out having fun, month in, month out might be considered a sacrifice of some sort.

JMO QED

PS From mid last year to about a month ago I was following an aussie trying to make it as live pro, who quit live (when he was winning) precisely because he didn't like where he was living. His ability to play online is obviously hampered by the fact that he is an Aussie and his government kinda **** canned it. So his best option would be to play abroad, but he doesn't want to do that either.

To me these seem like lifestyle factors/decisions involving poker....not sure what you would call them?????????????????????????

Exactly. Playing evenings + weekends doesn't sound like freedom to me.

Well I looked at his graph and he won a lot around 2011-2012, but like you say, for the past ~5 years he's been break even. If you haven't made money for 5 years as a pro, it's safe to say you don't beat the games anymore.

That lifestyle discussion is pointless. The vast majority of professional poker players living in Europe or North America makes a very significant part of their income during days/hours when “regular 9-to-5” people are off work. There are players who usually play during the day because their competition is mostly retired people and others play an online schedule during regular business hours, but those are in the minority.

There are certainly players who don’t feel like playing in the evening and on the weekends is a lifestyle sacrifice because that’s exactly what they like to do and that’s a fair point. But that’s not different from somebody saying he’s a night owl who likes the smell of poop and vomit and therefore cleans bathrooms at a nightclub. To him, that job isn’t a lifestyle sacrifice at all, to most others it would be a significant one.

From my personal experience: 10 years ago I was a small/mid-stakes fullring massgrinder while going to business school in Europe. By far the most profitable hours of the week were Friday/Saturday/Sunday from 3PM ET to midnight PT (9PM to 9AM CET). So every single weekend I had to make a decision if I want to miss out on doing what college students do on the weekends or miss out on the most profitable hours of the week. If I decided to party on Friday or Saturday night, that usually meant getting home wasted around 8AM the next morning which basically killed that day too.

My point is trying to point out that a poker career is not a 40 hour work week for the first several (always?) years. Thus limiting the "great flexibility" you stated.

/rant from someone who has started businesses.

Dream still alive but guess its A LOT harder now than it used to be. Requires big sacrifice in time invested etc and wouldn't suggest starting poker to most people, but there's still very decent money to be made if ur willing to work for it.

That’s an oxymoron.

Again, the dream was not to be able to earn a living from playing poker. The dream was to make more money than in a regular (college degree) job while working significantly less hours.

Today you are usually starring into empty eyes when you ask a “grinder” where he gets his health insurance from. Back then, lots of people (including myself) used poker money to properly fund their first businesses.

I agree with the "Cliffs" part of your post, very true the investment needed to get serious money out of poker is not worth it for most people.

You didn't touch much on cashgames, but 5k a month at $100NL is very doable with volumes going above 100k hands per month;

Plenty is a bit of a loaded word, not saying that's your intention, but what actually is "plenty?" For Twitch, you might say 50-100 is plenty, but when you look at the player pool of the websites they play on combined spanning in the 10s of thousands, that plenty doesn't seem so big AND we also should factor in:

1.We don't know if they're really winning

2.We don't know if they're really winning long term

So that number could get sliced in all sorts of ways.

More so live, if you're willing to do anything and everything online and if you got hookups for low key websites that have tons of fish.

Is that a realistic dream for most?

Let's put it like this, 12bb at 50NL w/ 500hph playing for 30h/pw with rakeback is close to 50k, now can you honestly say that this is achievable for most people coming into poker? Hell, even Doug frigging Polk couldn't do it recently and he is one of the best in the world, what about people who aren't even close to his knowledge?

Yeah, if you wanna grind out 20-30k it's entirely doable at 10-25NL IF you are willing to invest a good amount of time and resources into doing it, but even then, it's pretty tough and when compared to hours worked at a job, it would likely require similar amounts of time when factoring on/off table.

Basically, if you are young 20s something male that wants to see the world and make a bit of loot, yeah poker might be OK for you, but a career or even decent job is something that is starting to fade away online.

Are you sure about that? Even with an extremely high volume (say 100k h/month) and winrate, I can't see anyone coming close to regularly touching 2k/month at those stakes.

at 12bb/100
100K hands/month

25NL $3,000/mo $36K/year
10NL $1,200/mo $14.4K/year

That's a lot of hands. Continuous 100K hands per month seems dreadful imo.
That's a better than average sustained winrate?

12bb is still attainable at 25NL, let's say 600 hands per hour for 7 hours 5 days a week. 600 hands per hour is 2 zooms and 1-2 regular table, so hardly anything too crazy. That's $126 per day and $2500 per month and with rakeback depending on where you play, it could be an extra $150-500 per month.