adjusting your river strat to exploit a known tendency within a player pool is not "intuition" when u fold.
if u go sit in a random poker game, and make such an assumption that your opponents rarely bluff in this spot given only betsize as your reason, you'll probably get wrecked.
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my whole assumption is that their bluff frequency is not right and leans more often towards value every time in such aggressive lines as described before
if u knew the math, you wouldn't need to make this thread.
i dont even disagree. if they dont bluff then u can exploit by folding more. if they bluff too much, you can exploit by calling more. the math will show u, but just looking at the math of river solutions doesn't cut it. you need to examine hands thru the river and do your own calculations so you can understand where this specific hand combo falls in YOUR distribution and how betsize affects folding frequency.