Pair + FD vs Overpair, Math question
03-10-2022
, 09:55 AM
We all know it's essentially a coin flip, what I didn't know was: if your two pair outs are under their overpair, you are a dog, if your outs are over their over pair, you are a favorite. Why is this?
Forget all backdoor draws. Say a flop like 4
5J
J10 49.8% vs Q
Q
50.2%
But instead if you have K10 you're now 51.62%
From the messing around I've done, whenever you have an overcard to their overpair, your same 2 pair outs gain 1.82% equity, and I'm not sure why?
We have 14 outs in both scenarios.
Forget all backdoor draws. Say a flop like 4
5JJ
10 49.8% vs QQ 50.2%But instead if you have K
10 you're now 51.62%From the messing around I've done, whenever you have an overcard to their overpair, your same 2 pair outs gain 1.82% equity, and I'm not sure why?
We have 14 outs in both scenarios.
03-10-2022
, 05:44 PM
03-11-2022
, 11:09 AM
Quote:
We all know it's essentially a coin flip, what I didn't know was: if your two pair outs are under their overpair, you are a dog, if your outs are over their over pair, you are a favorite. Why is this?
Forget all backdoor draws. Say a flop like 45J
J10 49.8% vs QQ 50.2%
But instead if you have K10 you're now 51.62%
From the messing around I've done, whenever you have an overcard to their overpair, your same 2 pair outs gain 1.82% equity, and I'm not sure why?
We have 14 outs in both scenarios.
Forget all backdoor draws. Say a flop like 4
5JJ
10 49.8% vs QQ 50.2%But instead if you have K
10 you're now 51.62%From the messing around I've done, whenever you have an overcard to their overpair, your same 2 pair outs gain 1.82% equity, and I'm not sure why?
We have 14 outs in both scenarios.
That said, the opposite is often true for overcard outs, which must be discounted for your opponent having a match to one of your overcards (e.g. You have QJ on a AJx flop. Your opponent raised pre, so AQ is in his range, so you have to discount your Q outs)