fold equity scenerio, need help with logic behind it, math as well. below is fictional scenerio
6max, 50nl. everbody with full buyin: $50
hero on BTN
UTG raises to 1.75
UTG +1 folds
CO folds
Hero w J
T
calls
blinds fold
flop: Q
9
3
(pot $4.25)
villian bets $3.25 (pot:$7.50)
hero shoves all in for $48.25 (pot: $55.75)
Villian has $45 left. lets say hes got AQo, so hes getting, 55.75/45 = 1.23:1 odds (correct? ) or he needs 1+1.23=2.23, 1/2.23=45% equity to make the call (correct?).
if he puts me on a draw, its an automatic call. since hes got 63.2% pot equity vs JTs. but the reason hero is making play is to represent something better like trip 9's, right.
now if i make that kind of play against a tight player i reckon hes more likely to fold than say a loose player even with TPTK, correct? Assumming i got the image of tight player. or are loose players just as likely to fold? i got no idea, cause i am a tight player personally. hearing from loose players and what they might do, would be good.
or would it be getter to make that play on a two tone board?, because even if i only have a str8 draw rather than a str8, flush draw at least i can represent a combo draw.
i also dont like 3betting, cause he can put me all in. in which case i gotta fold, right?
but heres my problem with this play. how many times does villian have to fold for play to be profitable? i ran ten trials and came up with an expected value of
-$13.6 if he folds 80% of the time!. i dont see that happening personly. thats just a simple senerio. in reality he could have 2pair, trips, or air, right. a more compicated senerio would be to a assign a weighted average or probability to each possible holding vs mine. but i am to lazy.
here is my work
all in fold call
1 7.5
2 -36.8
3 7.5
4 7.5
5 -36.8
6 7.5
7 7.5
8 7.5
9 7.5
10 7.5
60 -73.6
profit/loss -13.6
if he folds i win whats in the pot $7.50. if he calls then i lose -$36.8 dollars on AVERAGE. ($100 is the pot, my equity is approx. 36.8%, so -$36.8)
so am i off base here in my calculations, math by far is not my strong suit.
in conclusion, villain would have to fold 80%++ to make play profitable. that to me seems unlikely. thus i think people underestimate fold equity considerably. thoughts, mr.crymeariver? or anybody who knows what they are talking about.
Last edited by bacanef2007; 06-22-2008 at 02:54 PM.