FWIW, I think the truth is somewhere in between those two threads. Stats should be useful CLUES to villains frequencies. Waiting for 15,000 hands is kinda dumb and making multistreet plays based on a 30 hand sample is also kinda dumb.

i see the '~' symbol and word 'enough' isn't enough to stop some nitpicking debate

I decided to switch to full ring games at PS. Im playing the absolute micros. For what stats should I be looking for with table selection? High VPIP and high average pots are the juicy ones right?

I think adding an emoticon to you original post would have probably swung it though.

Jmsurn- in theory, yes to juicy.

Nah. Those arguments don't contradict each other. It just shows that the probability is higher that the numbers will converge to the stats that we have over a small samplesize than going in the completely different direction.


Nah. You just need one example to prove a thesis wrong

How do you calculate the odds of getting pocket aces? I heard it's 1/221, but what is the math behind it?

And does anyone have a chart of all the possible 169 starting hands in poker.

Also, how do you calculate the chances of your KK running into AA.

Or QQ running into KK and AA? What are the odds?

thanks!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p...s_hold_'em)

Edit: you'll find literally thousands of websites on the internet discussing hand charts, probabilities etc.
I didn't want to post direct links because I don't know the sites
Just google 'poker probabilities' or 'poker starting hands' etc.
But don't waste too much time on that topic. In the end it's pretty irrelevant to your game.
Gl

thanks i will do a short read on it then move on to other aspects since you say it's irrelevant

I wasted too much time on that topic for sure

But juicy tables add up higher variance isn't that right? Or does it just mean there are actual fishes splashing on that table?

haha, sorry to bother, but i have another question.

if my opponent has a PFR of about 10% what range of hands is he raising preflop?

what about 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%?

I didn't mean that I wasted too much time answering your question. I wasted too much time myself thinking about these things when I started playing a few years ago.


You can't really answer this question because ranges differ. Your 10% raising range is different to somebody else's 10% raising range.

Even your own ranges differ. Let's say you raise 10% of your hands utg and you 3bet 10% of hands on the button in a specific situation. It's very probable that you are doing this with different hands.

Do you have pokerstove? It's a good tool to play around with ranges. Add hands, remove hands. See how you can build a reasonable range that consists of 10% hands, 15%, 20% etc.

You can get high vpip tables with 5 loose players or 4 nits and a player playing 80/60.

Higher vpip tables usually mean higher variance. But they also mean higher winrate (and winrate trumps variance).

1326 total starting hands, with 6 combinations of each of the 13 pocket pairs. Get Equilab or Pokerstove to see the full chart and start counting combos. http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/10/
You want tables where you have the biggest edge, to compensate for the natural swings of variance. If you played with 8 players of equal skill to you, you'd have no edge, so your wins and losses would be totally due to luck (coolering and getting coolered by the regs). Against loose fish, you have a big edge. You'll typically experience bigger swings, but most of these swings will be UPswings, because you start with stronger hands.

thanks for all the answers! sorry i just had one more dumb question come up in my mind.

On the probability chart ( for probability of facing an ace with a higher kicker ), it states that if i have AQ, against another player the chances of him holding AK is 1.22%, however against 5 other players in a 6max game, the chances increases to 5.9%.

If i am playing in a 6max game and i am in the SB with AQ, and i want to know the probability of the BB holding AK, do i use the 1.22% or 5.9%? ( if everyone folds to me )

Thanks once again!

1.22%, but you really shouldn't worry about that particular situation, because BB's range is obviously much wider than 1% of all hands. In SBvBB, you're always raising AQ. If villain has AK and you both make top pair, it's a cooler, in the same way that sometimes you have KK vs AA in the blinds. It's very rare, but it happens.

1.22

Is have KK in early position on a FR 2NL table and getting 4bet by a middle position an obvious fold? How often would the average player have AA there or AK/QQ?

General rule: "Never fold KK pre-flop".
The chance that someone has AA when you have KK on a full ring table is around 4%. Most players would be 3-betting QQ and AK, and there are more combos of those than AA, obviously, even though you block some AK combos.
To be precise, if you have KK, then there are 6 AA combos, 8 live AK combos and 6 QQ combos. You're crushed by 6 out 20, and ahead of 14. Why would you fold when you have the best hand 70% of the time?

Some players will stack off pre-flop with JJ, AQ or worse, so it's a no-brainer to get it in with KK unless villain is a complete nit with stats like 7/2/1.

Yeah I am aware of that, but I was talking about a 4bet. So I should still go broke eventhough he 6bets?

just get it all in, yes

The probability your first card is an Ace is 4/52. The probability your second card is then also an ace is 3/51. So the probability both are aces is:

(4/52)(3/51) = (1/13)(1/17) = 1/221

Why people work this stuff out using combinations is beyond me.

Should I fold my KK preflop?

starting out PLO hu.

Going to play hu sngs 3-7 dollars at stars, possible to beat rake?

when to go to cash, at plo25 cash hu at party? possible to beat it? or wait for plo100 roll before going to play cash? what would you guys do thanks