thoughts are you have a trivial turn fold

whether his range is balanced or not, you don't need to counter either by bet/calling the worst value hand in your rang, particularly when having a Ten accounts for basically nothing

yeah i can't fathom why we should be doing anything but bet/folding turn.

5 is like the nut blank though. I'm guessing gamma 2 barrels often enough to make raising with air profitable against him some of the time. I mean his AF is 3.2 lol

The Villain's AF is 5.8, just noticed lol. That makes calling even better imo

yeah his aggression is pretty redic. Reason why I called turn.

yea that's very true.

Would you have a BC XC or BC XR range here OTT and river?

haha, yeah 200nl may be slightly unrealistic, but I'd love to be able to achieve it. :P

I don't know if I can do a video at 5nl now. Would you guys still be interested in a video at 2nl or something though?

@ Oly, yeah sure

@ Gamma, I'd say u def do need various ranges here OTT, this particular hand could be in your ch/call range for instance. Less so otr I think as spots come up less often, but obv that's more about knowing how to get most value out of your villain and hand reading

@ Gamma

Jw, since his AF is so high why didn't you just call river? I would think that because of his AF he can't have 2p that often, and it seems like most of the incentive to jam river would be to prevent a showdown due to that reason

@dunna
I agree a need to do a lot of work in these spots cause i'm missing a whole lot of Ev. But I'd probably be XCing JT and T9 here a lot so its not like I don't have any TP in my Xc range.


@tens
I think he has 10+ combos of 2p which is a decent part of his range OTR and I can probably get him to fold them all. He can have some hands like 98 that called flop and turned it into a bluff OTT and hit the riv(which wasn't a good idea since I wasn't folding a T OTT lol)

Ah, that makes sense. If you think he raises the flop with all Tx of his range (removing a lot of 2p hands in his range as played), do you still shove here?

Also, can either you or mr blonde elaborate on this...it's not too clear to me what he means here (to me, anyway):

That would make calling better I think since he would be more polarized OTR? He is already polarized by if he raises all his Tx OTF he would have less value hands OTR, I think.

wrt the quoute:
I have a lot of one pair hands combos that i'm going to be barreling for value here(any over pair and QT+) which as a standard I probably wouldn't be continuing with vs a turn raise as per baluga. So there are a lot of better hands to be calling a raise with here as an adjustment(AA and KK ) that I can plan to XC or sometimes XR(when I have a heart) the riv as a bluff with.

basically by calling the turn with KT i'm making an over adjustment.

AA and KK are actually a lot better hand for XRing the riv since he has a lot less equity vs me with his bluffs and I don't block his 2pairs that he will probably bet fold on the riv. Would that be right cam?

We can rep pair+heart draw hands when we call turn and c/r river but won't he himself have a large % of flushes in his range if he check/raises so wide?

So...you're saying AA and KK are better for your river line since it leaves more Tx (which means more 2p) combos in his range that he is willing to bet/fold, whereas the hand you actually took that line with makes him more polarized, making it more probable that he would've called you?

And wrt to the quote pt 2:

This is all hypothetical but still relevant imo - if we think cbetting a T hi flop induces floats and 2 barreling a blank ott induces raises from BB's entire range, we stand to make more money by bet/calling then ck/calling don't we? It just seems that we lose some value by turning TP2K into a ck/c'ing hand ott when Villain's AF suggests he can raise with worse relatively often. I could be wrong though

If he's going to play his flush draw strong then he's more likely to be doing that otf than the turn imo, which makes his turn raising range far more polarised imo as there just aren't that many likely semi bluff combos, despite the board being pretty scruffy

Sorry for replying to a post that's a bit buried, but have to agree with MMSS here that it is imperative to work on this. I'm not at all trying to make myself out to be some expert here or anything, but I strongly believe one of the keys to my recent success (modest success, but still) has been to not only 'be OK' with losing in situations like this but actually look at it as a positive if I get my money in good. Nothing we can do about the cards that show up once the money goes in.

Vs thinking players raising turn is actually good with a flush draw because we can rep monsters otr if our draw misses. It's also unlikely that you have too many hands in your range strong enough to call a big river barrel.

Agreed, but with villain's AF he's taking most aggro opportunities.

I may be doing him a disservice ofc, and he's a good LAG player who's mixing it up well

Thoughts on all streets?

At the time villain was loose but not particularly aggro altho not a drooling fish, his stats now say 41/24/2af, never 3bet over bout 40 hands, but his AF was slightly lower at the time, maybe about 1.5 or something

I personally raise BTN smaller ($0.52) but in this case 4 handed i'd raise bigger, 3x, because he's playing loose he wont pick up on the sizing tell.

But i'm playing all streets the same tbh. No point GII on the flop, i'd happily just let him barrel off. Some of the time he has 6x but i think the majority of this is weighted towards random Qx and mostly PP's

So you're calling river too given his betsizing? I find weak players make weak bets with hands they're not entirely happy with, but this looks stronger

The bet sizing to me looks strong tbh the bigger it is the weaker i tend to believe it is, 66% looks pretty strong to this. But if you're folding KK here what are you calling with 6x + 77?

It doesn't make that much difference what overpair we have tho (unless we have blockers to the SD), its about the % of the time villain is bluffing in this situation using this sizing is it not?

I dunno, I'm thinking is just one of those questions with no right answer given his stats. He's aggro enough to be raising trips+ OTF, but also 89, altho the river cuts down those combos obv

If this was a blank 3 i'd so wanna call this turn, is that just spewing calling a blank turn here?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $25.68
SB: $25.93 (VPIP: 3.57, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
BB: $32.84 (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
UTG: $10.89
MP: $27.27
CO: $45.17 (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 23)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9 8

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.52, fold, BB raises to $2.00, Hero calls $1.48

Flop: ($4.10, 2 players) 7 8 A
BB checks, Hero bets $2.66, BB raises to $6.75, Hero calls $4.09

Turn: ($17.60, 2 players) 3
BB bets $17.50, fold

For the first part yeah that's my exact though process. But we want to have AA/KK because he has more Tx 2p which can bet/fold the river like you said, but not cause it makes him more polarised, because it enlargens the part of his range that we make money off(his b/f range).

See what cam has to say though. As far as I can see its a better adjusment to do it with AA/KK but he might point out a fault in the logic(like he usually does)


The problem with BCing OTT with TP2K is we nearly always have an ugly spot OTR where we don't know what to do. I got lucky enough since his sizing collaborated with my thoughts that he rarely has a flush. But taking this line probably not going to be good often enough. Like cam said we have the bottom of our value range, no need to get fancy with it.

+1. He had 22% raise flop cbet so the chances of him not raising a FD OTF is very slim IMO.

He can't really rep monsters OTR, his range is pretty capped(besides the odd gutshot that hit) at 2p and 55 set. He is always raising sets OTF here especially since we BVB.

He isn't a bad reg but his aggression is pretty exploitable. He's actually tight enough pre flop.

@ dunna don't think i'm folding. If he turns over 6x just note it.

@viva whats the flop bet about? His range is basically AA, TT-KK, some draws that aren't folding and maybe some weak Ax. Check behind and try bink. Don't call the XR after bettng and definitely don't call turn

be very cautious when someone misses a cbet on Axx or Kxx boards. They almost always have something.

seems like spew to call the c/r.

and yeah it's just compounding to do anything but c/f non 6,8,9,T turns