to kick things off with some more strat chat, heres a couple of hands from a session i played earlier today on stars at nl50 in order to try and hit supernova by end of december. one is value betting on the river and the other is bluff raising the river. something which people all the way up to the mid-stakes suck at.
50nl is where cash games start to get a bit more interesting. you find regs who know what they are doing to some extent... like they will have seen 2p2 and watched some videos so they know they should be 3betting light, they know they should be double barreling when a low flop comes and then an A comes on the turn etc... however they are super exploitable in a lot of spots because they struggle to fold top pair and generally just dont understand relative hand strength. they also turn their hands face up quite a bit by pot controlling a lot of their weak made hands too much. and mostly they cbet like 80% of boards then just c/f a ton of turns. i will try and write some stuff up properly about these things and how you can exploit them effectively.
in terms of fish, they are still there in abundance, u just might have to look for them a little bit more than you are used to.
so onto a couple hands...
hand 1:
if you play on stars this might be useful to you to know this player. for those who dont, hes a decent aggro reg. very 2p2 sort of player and the sort of reg i described above basically.
Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
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Jmoney1423 (MP): $67.85
Arancaa (CO): $49.20
Hero (BTN): $141.70
gr1my (SB): $75.55
speedcake (BB): $50.00
okutai (UTG): $67.25
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q
K
3 folds,
Hero raises to $1.50,
1 fold, speedcake calls $1
so right away we can discount a lot of JJ+, AQ+ and probably some stuff like AT/ AJ as most regs at nl50 are just going to be auto-3betting those hands (not that thats the best play necessarily, its just what they have learnt). he is probably flatting a lot of pairs 22-TT, some broadway hands like KJ/ QJ. maybe some connectors like 78s but i think he might use those to 3bet light with.
Flop: ($3.25) Q
4
8
(2 players)
good flop to cbet, obviously. a lot of his broadway hands missed, a lot of his connectors missed. only 2 of his pocket pairs made sets. id probably be cbetting this near to 100%, though id check back some marginal made hands like 55 to try and get to showdown cheaply as i dont really think theres value in betting and its pointless bluffing him (as he only folds hands worse than mine).
speedcake checks,
Hero bets $2.00, speedcake calls $2
when he check/calls, i assume his range to be a lot of hands like 55+, 8x and Qx. sets may slowplay. i doubt he is check-calling A high just because players at 50nl probably arent (tho its not a bad play vs someone who cbets all the time). so im confident i have the best hand here 95% of the time.
Turn: ($7.25) 5
(2 players)
unless he check-called 55/ 67 or slowplayed a set, i believe i still have the best hand. this is a card i would probably double barrel with all my diamond draws, lots of gutshots such as A2/62/97 etc since i dont expect him to have a hand that can call 2 or 3 barrels as he mostly has 77 type hand, 8x or a weak Qx. therefore, i cant just bet my bluffs and check my good hands because hes a reg and will work that out pretty quickly (my turn betting range becomes super polarised basically). also, since i have the best hand 95% of the time i just want to get value.
speedcake checks,
Hero bets $5.50, speedcake calls $5.50
unlikely he slowplayed a set twice since the board is getting somewhat drawy, i have indicated that i have a decent hand... he would want to be trying to get stacks in before a cooler card comes on the river. unless he misclicked, i have the best hand like 100% of the time.
River: ($18.25) A
(2 players)
here is a spot where i think a lot of players would check behind, and i think thats wrong for a couple of reasons...
1) what hands that beat us are in his range? 8x dd that backdoored into a flush is just about the only hand that beats us now. Ax is unlikely because AQ probably 3bets pre, and that hand beat us anyway. A8 is unlikely just because thats a really weak hand to defend (he would probably 3bet or fold that), and its also a very thin call on the turn unless he thinks i double barrel a lot.
2) its a good card for us to bluff. if we were double barreling the turn with 96/ 97/ 63s/ 62s, all of which id be opening from the button, then id be bluffing the river. whilst our A2/ A3 hands hit, as well as our flushes, theres still a lot of bluffs in our range (combo wise theres a lot of 97o hands etc), so he can potentially hero call. furthermore, he wont expect me to bet Qx on the river, which polarises my perceived range quite a lot to A2/A3, 67 and then the 2pairs and sets. when someones range is polarised you should be more inclined to call down because it means they dont need to be bluffing very often essentially (this isnt the best example of a polarised hand range though).
speedcake checks,
Hero bets $13.50, speedcake folds
the important thing to remember is that we didnt lose anything by betting. he isnt going to call every time obviously, but that doesnt matter. if we check behind, he cant make a mistake. if we bet, then we give him the opportunity to. the objective of poker is to make your opponent make more mistakes than you.
hand 2:
heres a cool bluff vs a fish, where i think most people would just auto-fold or auto-call the river and not think at all about bluff raising which in fact is just hugely +EV.
Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Eagles525 (BB): $40.15
Hero (UTG): $66.60
Alex_Barr21 (MP): $52.85
Watermelon31 (CO): $51.65
XxaceshighxX (BTN): $56.30
brownie337 (SB): $37.95
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K
Q
Hero raises to $1.50, Alex_Barr21 calls $1.50,
1 fold, XxaceshighxX calls $1.50, brownie337 calls $1.25, Eagles525 calls $1
standard open, obviously. we get called in 4 places so whatever. im not gonna be getting too involved unless i flop a monster...
Flop: ($7.50) A
7
6
(5 players)
brownie337 bets $2.00, Eagles525 calls $2,
we get led into 5 way by the sb and then the bb calls. although the bet is small, i dont think that the sb can be too weak here just because its 5way. therefore i dont like raising here, even though i think some people might be inclined to because we have the nut flush draw, we were the preflop raiser, and therefore we are entitled to raise!! thats kind of wrong thinking imo... if we call, we keep in all worse flush draws, we can outdraw sets/ 2 pair and potentially stack someone.
Hero calls $2, Alex_Barr21 folds, XxaceshighxX folds
Turn: ($13.50) K
(3 players)
brownie337 checks,
Eagles525 bets $5.00,
now we pick up a pair to go with our flush draw. the sb checks, so i dont think he is strong at all. i have no idea wtf he was doing on the flop lol... bb bets super small, so i assume he is either making a gaybet with Ax trying to charge a draw, or betting a draw himself. i dont think he ever (<5%) has a set/ 2pair. i have good odds to try and outdraw him, or i may have the best hand anyway so i call.
Hero calls $5, brownie337 folds
River: ($23.50) 7
(2 players)
Eagles525 bets $6.00,
again he makes a tiny bet. so now i think he is either doing some ridic bluff with spades, or making a thin/ block bet with Ax. since his bet is so small, i think that he is essentially looking to get to showdown cheaply. since hes a fish, i doubt he is very good at hand-reading. if i raise, i rep a 7 that rivered trips or a bluff. the thing is though... when a fish buys in for under full stacked, and then bets like this, he is basically saying that he doesnt want to get it all in but that he has a hand of some value that he didnt want to check. so yeah, i could call here and be good some% of the time, but i can raise and win the pot like 100% of the time. even though to a good hand reader i dont rep much, the fish isnt trying to hand read, he will just see a 7 came on the river, i raised, i probably 'have it'.
Hero raises to $58.10, Eagles525 folds
fwiw, from a math perspective he had about $25 left after his river bet, and the pot was $30. he doesnt even need to fold 50% of the time to show a profit. usually the standard is 'never bluff a fish off top pair', but its clear he doesnt want to go broke here, so its obviously massively +EV when he is snap-folding much more than 50%. i also think a may have had the best hand on the river some% of the time, but thats not the point.
so the important thing i hope these hands showed is that people generally arent very deceptive and they have what they are repping. in the 1st hand, speedcake was repping a 1 pair type hand... we tried to get a hero call, it didnt happen. its good to note that he can fold there, as it makes it a good spot to bluff in the future. the important thing to remember is that we allowed him to make a mistake whereas by checking we wouldnt have.
in the 2nd hand, we thought about the hand range of the fish, we thought about whether he wanted to play a big pot with it or a small pot, and then we put him to a tough decision which again,
allowed him to make a mistake. if we call the river, he cant make a mistake.
you will also notice, that by making plays like this, your red line is increasing rapidly. thats not to say you should 3 barrel every hand, or bluff raise every river, but its important to pick up on spots like this. i dont think either of the hands are close (i.e. the play i made is the best play 95%+ of the time in both), but they are situations that a lot of people miss out on, particularly those who are auto-piloting a bunch of tables and not really looking at places to make good plays - notably btw, those players are generally those who have the worst red lines and it drastically lowers your winrate
Last edited by jackwilcox; 12-15-2009 at 02:46 AM.