99 on 76A2A
He can value bet worse, people like stabbing at dry boards, and in that situation, your hand is massively underrepped, he is taking a stab definetly.
He probably just went ZOMG YOU HAZ NOTHING I BET, and it being a multiway pot doesn't mean much to him. Just because you don't know HIS bluffing frequency doesn't mean you can't just estimate the frequency of a random 25NL donk bluffing when everyone checks down to the river to him, that's like an invitation to bet, I'm surprised you said that nobody every bluffs here. He is too much of a fish to realize that you check due to showdown value and would have cbet any K high Q high, which I assume is what you mean when you say "he can't ever be bluffing here", because I can see him bluffing here a LOT, or have a 7 or 6 and go I HAVE TOP PAIR I BET! I simply cannot see ever folding to 1 bet with 99 on AA762. We basically have the nut two pair here. He never has an ace, never has a fullhouse, and... yeah, what beats us here, actually? TT JJ?
And that "cost me nothing" part is just sort of silly. I mean, it doesn't matter what is already in the pot, yes, and it costs you 2 dollars to call, but you're good way more than 50% of the time when in fact you need to be good less than 30% of the time, so folding there is sort of horrible in an EV standpoint, but you didn't explain that at all. To me, your comments about pot odds in the end is making it more clear than ever that it is a call. Risk 2 dollars win 6.8 back. Seems like a sweet deal to me.
Basically I am very VERY surprised when you explained your play there. Maybe a fold lower variance, okay, but this is nowhere near a "clear fold" as you seem to suggest, and I honestly think you'd agree with me if you read the hand again, as I obviously have a lot of respect for your posts.
58o vs minraise 5-way pot (don't fold?)With the TT set cbet where the two players folded, I just thought I'd mention that I like a 1.8 or 1.9 bet sizing instead of 2 because we've seen that guy do crazy stuff, and basically I think a 1.8 or 1.9 looks a lot weaker than a $2 bet psychologically and could encourage them to make moves or float or peel with weak hands or whatever, and I don't think building a huge pot has much value on that board as induce semi-bluff raises and light call-downs.
You got sick called with your jacks, I mean, wow second pair.
I think cbetting for value/prot w/ AJ on 842 is okay especially vs a stack like his where you can't peel A high on the turn to any decent bet (not his min bet) Also you give him too much credit to think he will peel vs you thinking you have A high. A high isn't THAT huge a part of your range; you have loads of pockets and possible 89 78 also. I'd value/block bet river.
btw, I am making these comments on notepad as I watch, I didn't see his cards, but I really prefer a value/block bet with AJ. I don't think he'd raise a Q, I don't think he'd raise bluff, and I don't think he'd bet less than your block/value bet with a Q either (I assume you're calling a bet on the river if he bets 2/3...), so you gain almost nothing by checking since he doesn't really bluff air too much there (imo) as much as he has some random pocket pair or mid pair that will call you down but check/bet ******ed like he did, I mean, hey, it's the river, he's not folding his 6s or T8 or whatever, imho.
AQT doesn't really hit a limp/call range that hard, imo, and limping behind with pocket pairs to hit a set multiway is okay (you'e done this twice so far. I don't see anything wrong with prot/semibluff bet 55 on AQT just to take the pot, also, he's stabbing turn even with air (imo he's almost never not betting the turn with air); this is 6max 25NL, people bet when checked to, it's what they do, imo, so if you check to check fold, you're losing value, check to call is spewey because even if he bluffs a huge percentage our hand is still terrible in equity vs any 2 overs + gutshot and the 9 helps his range also, so the best choice is to bluff (with what is usually the best hand) on the flop and besides you can second barrel or check turn bet river sometimes or something. If you had something like K9s on the flop, you're cbetting surely, and yes, you have a gutshot, but that really doesn't change much does it?
You cbet because it's an AQT board and it his your range way more than his. Occasionally he has Qx Tx, but rarely Ax, making it good for double barrels, but even just cbetting, I think it is, in a vaccuum, profitable vs his range. If it's profitable to cbet K9, it's probably profitable to cbet ATC in that spot, which includes 55, and it doesn't really matter that we are bluffing with the best hand, the move is +EV so it is.
Oh yeah, you say he's never folding any part of that board... yeah that's true... but how often does he have a part of that board, seriously?
99 preflop 3bet would be cool, but I generally flat these hands without dynamic/history. Also I think so deep you can 3bet/fold for value, really, since he can't 4bet too wide vs your stack, so I don't actually think 3bet is worse due to higher stacks, especially when when he 4bets, he's just... not going to be smart enough to realize that you have awesome 4betting stacks, and 4bet you with ATC or whatever, and in fact I doubt they 4bet bluff ever, and even OOP I really think a 3bet/fold for value can be okay as he'd probably play fairly straightforward anyway so being OOP isn't a huge deal... these players aren't good enough to exploit position imho.
Like I said I probably flat too, though.
Also I noticed siomething funny, you decided not to cbet on a 842 or whatever board earlier with AJ because you said you think they will never give you credit for anything, but then you said he cbets here on a similar dry boardbecuase he never expect you to ever call with anything... isn't that contradictory? =D
Both are true, but I think in 25NL the "dry board therefore they don't hit and will fold" PoV is a lot more applicable then "dry flop they know I miss a lot and just cbet so they will float/raise bluff".
Also vs that player, I like a call because there aren't many pocket pairs you can get value from and he's folding AK AQ AJ AT which, if he were a higher level thinker (or just overall station) he may talk himself into bet/3betting or peeling thinking that you decided to c/r bluff a dry flop because you think he cbets 100% with air.
But I am saying that this random 25NL player probably doesn't think like that so a call is cool.
Turn is standard, and river is sort of sick.
I am unsure of this personally, I think it's close, maybe you disagree. I think fold's fine, but I'm generally the "when in doubt, call to find out" crowd, so, you know, I call sometimes.
Oh yeah you talked about hand reading after his river bet, I think sort of related to what I was talking earlier about a c/r, and I totally agree with you there; I'd call this vs quite a few players who'd 3barrel especially when I (think?) you took some time making your calls and they look sort of weak.
I know HU I'm never folding this, EVER, almost (although I'd 3bet usually, so
whatever, this hand won't happen I guess).
Oh, speaking of which and spending 8 dollars to find out whether someone is a maniac is DEFINITELY well worth it. I am a cat, and curioisity my bane.
Another argument is that you have position + a large stack, potentailly up to 200bb effective, so information on this player for the rest of the session, even if you lose this hand, would be very very useful, so I am not kidding when I say I am snap-calling here when it's close to neutral EV (which I think
we probably are) or even very marginally -EV.
Folding KTs on an AJ5 board is so nitty though. See if you had KTo with the K of diamonds and you semibluff, he would expect you to never fold to a bet/3bet so I think it's actually okay to bluff this; he folds most pairs and usually most weak diamonds; not sure if he'd continue with anything except for a nut or second nut flush draw, in fact, so actually vs his raising and cbetting range, you've got a tonne of fold equity.
OH AND YOU HAVE A GUTSHOT AND K HIGH (aka possibly the best hand!)
I just don't think playing back on "super wet monochrome boards" is bad because he will never continue here without a solid piece of the flop knowing that a) you are never folding a made hand b) you are never folding a draw, c) a draw has huge equity vs most mid-bottom-under pair hands, and this means he's basically got to fold most of his hands even a lot of made hands, not to mention he has a tonne of hands that missed that you're actually ahead of anyway (he's 23/21 at this point, so he's probably stealing fairly wide.
You having a flush or pair + flush draw or other monster draw stack-off hand is also entirely possible, so basically, yeah, I think this may seem counter intuitive, to bluff on a wet board when you don't have one of the semibluffing hands, but I think it's actually an okay spot for it.
Oh, and when you say you don't expect him to cbet 100% of his air... I think you are wrong. People will cbet 100% of his diamonds because he has a draw and because zomg, there is an ace on the board! Good board to cbet!
So I actually disagree with that. I notice you decided to not cbet Ajx or whatever board earlier with your 55, so maybe you're projecting YOUR tendencies onto the other players, but imho, 25NL players who are aggressive (this players seems to be) and cbets will def cbet A high broadway mono flops, they think it's an awesome board to cbet because it's so scary.
imho.
I like flatting AQ IP to keep pot small with positional advantage, but I think there is some value in 3betting AQ not to get the UTG to call, but to make him fold and ahve the maniac in the middle call because we know that he's horrible, although I guess flat calling lets us play a smaller preflop pot vs an unpredictable player, and we also have position on the maniac's action after the cbet (if there is a cbet, which in this case there isn't).
Basically I think we can 3bet for information + value. Yes, I said it, raising for information, but in this case it applies because we get very useful information from UTG but also lots of value from the donk.
We've seen the UTG flat a 4bet with AK so like, we're just looking to get him to fold (and we know he's usually folding since he has a tight range but AQ is well ahead of his range) so raising there is def not -EV even if we assume to be in bad shape if called, but we get so much value from the donk + we won't get value towned by AK QQ+, I think it's okay to 3bet there.
Also, I think with 1/3 of your stack in with KQ, it's not really a snap fold. In fact, I don't see myself folding KQs ever in that spot, though he's tight so whatever. Your pot odds are just so good.