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My poker Math My poker Math

10-30-2021 , 09:03 PM
So I play poker for fun, hoping to one day be a big winner. I calculated some numbers after talking to a poker regular and wondered what my math tells you, if it tells you anything.

First calculation is I played 730 days, or 2 years live at casinos.

Secondly, money after all those days playing is $25,000 down, or in the negative.

Basic algebra tells me I am losing $34.2456753 every day I play so far.

I played online too and that money is included in the above calculation, I just do not have the hours, or days I grinded online, but I can say at least another 365 days online.

I was always doing both at the same time, and used online as practice to improve live. Not winning yet how I want, but still learning. Live I play 1 /2 nl holdem and online I play the low stakes.
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10-30-2021 , 11:53 PM
First, stop playing too many tables and stop playing online while you are playing live. Until you can make quality decisions instictively, you need to be more present in the games you are playing.

Second, you need a better understanding of how you win and how you lose. Just dividing your days by your overall wins\losses tells you nothing. Do you win small sessions and lose big. Or do you lose a lot of small, 1 or 2 buy ins, and occasionally win big?

Third, once you figure out how you are losing, look into your mindset and decision making to figure out why you are losing.

Keep a log of each session. How long did you play. Did you win or lose. What reads did you make that were correct. What decisions did you make that were incorrect, and why did you make them. Why did you win or lose that session.

Do this every session, then review periodically to look for leaks and trends
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10-31-2021 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
First, stop playing too many tables and stop playing online while you are playing live. Until you can make quality decisions instictively, you need to be more present in the games you are playing.

Second, you need a better understanding of how you win and how you lose. Just dividing your days by your overall wins\losses tells you nothing. Do you win small sessions and lose big. Or do you lose a lot of small, 1 or 2 buy ins, and occasionally win big?

Third, once you figure out how you are losing, look into your mindset and decision making to figure out why you are losing.

Keep a log of each session. How long did you play. Did you win or lose. What reads did you make that were correct. What decisions did you make that were incorrect, and why did you make them. Why did you win or lose that session.

Do this every session, then review periodically to look for leaks and trends
I do not play live and online at the same time, that came out wrong. What I was trying to say that during those 2 years I also played online when I was not playing live, I just do not have the time I spent playing online, but another year seems like the amount of times i played online. This is the only math I have on my poker career, counting Big blinds won and using programs is something I have not done yet, I just used this math to try to figure out how much I was losing every time I played on average.
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10-31-2021 , 05:35 PM
25k is a lot to lose in 1/2

are you playing every day? is that what you mean?

you should invest in a coach, it should at least get to you to break even at live 1/2 nl - which imo is as easy as poker gets

poker is not for everyone though, most people just don't have that second gear needed to play it profitably - that's not meant as an insult - some of the biggest fish at the table are often the most intelligent/successful who are winning at life and just not cut out to play poker very well
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10-31-2021 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
25k is a lot to lose in 1/2
Depends if he's talking about pure losses at the table, or if he's including expenses. If he's spent as little as $15 petrol on each visit, that's nearly half the losses accounted for already
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10-31-2021 , 11:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
Depends if he's talking about pure losses at the table, or if he's including expenses. If he's spent as little as $15 petrol on each visit, that's nearly half the losses accounted for already
That did include gas, food and no I did not play everyday, I just figured out how many times I went to the casino. The drive there was 30 minutes max back and forth. I do enjoy going, many times I went there just to destress, relax, get away. I went to play with friends some days, so its a good hobby since I can make my buy ins last me long periods of time. Coaching is something I should look into, thanks for that tip.
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11-01-2021 , 12:11 AM
so you mean you played a total of 730 days over an undefined period

if you're including gas/food then that's not bad at all, just a regular hobby

but yes, 1/2 live can be beaten at a reasonable clip to at least cover gas/food

trooper plays 1-3, he's terrible and yet he's up 6k this year (not including expenses) so you may want to invest in coaching but quite honestly if you're having fun and it's not a hurt on your financial situation then you can carry on

frankly, bad poker is a hell of a lot more fun than optimal poker, you have to fold far more often and that means a lot more sitting around watching others play - when i play 1-2 among friends I will knowingly make poor decisions because it'll be fun to play 6To oop etc etc
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11-05-2021 , 03:28 AM
Could you please explain your question or did you just wanted to get a comment on your math?
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11-09-2021 , 04:57 PM
1) 'study' your live and online stats separately .. and perhaps give them to us that way. Typically live stats are based on hours and online stats are based on hands played.

2) In my area a mile is a minute .. So if you are traveling 60 miles round trip and apply the IRS mileage standard of $0.56 you are expensing $33.60 per trip. Does that make you a break even Player? Do you use/get any comps?

3) Online play is typically different (tighter) than live, so I'm going to assume you are missing some live spots where you can pick up pots you would otherwise lose online.

4) Are you using live tells or just applying the ABC type of thoughts and math to live play?

5) Expand your session wins/losses thought into pots won/lost as well. Win a bunch of small ones, but lose all the big ones? Are you getting your money in good or getting caught off guard?

6) How do you think the other Players view you? Do you interact with them away from the table? Are there any Regs you could grab a meal with to talk poker?

I think it's great that you actually have these stats available .. How long of an actual time frame are we talking? If this is spread over even 5 years you might actually be an above average Player. GL
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11-10-2021 , 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
1) 'study' your live and online stats separately .. and perhaps give them to us that way. Typically live stats are based on hours and online stats are based on hands played.

2) In my area a mile is a minute .. So if you are traveling 60 miles round trip and apply the IRS mileage standard of $0.56 you are expensing $33.60 per trip. Does that make you a break even Player? Do you use/get any comps?

3) Online play is typically different (tighter) than live, so I'm going to assume you are missing some live spots where you can pick up pots you would otherwise lose online.

4) Are you using live tells or just applying the ABC type of thoughts and math to live play?

5) Expand your session wins/losses thought into pots won/lost as well. Win a bunch of small ones, but lose all the big ones? Are you getting your money in good or getting caught off guard?

6) How do you think the other Players view you? Do you interact with them away from the table? Are there any Regs you could grab a meal with to talk poker?

I think it's great that you actually have these stats available .. How long of an actual time frame are we talking? If this is spread over even 5 years you might actually be an above average Player. GL


Gas back and forth $20. Not playing online anymore for cash because my banks blocked those sites, but I do play freerolls and played cash with winnings from the freerolls(Global Poker).... They have them every hour, decent players at times. I play ABC poker but I try to mix it up, depending how the players are playing. I become a regular at one casino so I know the majority of them.

The thing is these regulars, house players, play higher limits, so I am competing VS them, to catch the fish or weak players at 1 2 nl, and then when the fish is out of money its pretty boring, standard poker to win chips.

I win/lose big, small, I believe my leaks are that I stop caring and just play anything. Not really a tilt, I just do not care. Like J10 suited feels like pocket AA's and I am gambling, but I do have more days when its serious. I think players see me as just a regular now, but not a winner yet, the competition at 1 2 nl at my casino is tough, they belong at the higher limits but no they are here with me.

Also been playing more than 5 years on and off.
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11-11-2021 , 12:26 PM
Play less often, and when you play, focus on playing well. When you notice yourself playing badly (usually, playing weak loose or weak tight), take a walk and refocus. if you are still playing passively and poorly, leave. Document how long it takes you to get to the point where you are playing apathetically.

And yes, not caring is a form of tilt. Read Jared Tendler's books

Document significant hands, both what you did well, and what mistakes you made (and why you made them)

And yes, you should be concerned that higher stakes players seem to be playing at tables you are at. It is possible they are bum hunting....and you are the bum.

Tighten up, always aggress, rarely call. Mix your range so it is value heavy with some speculative hands and few flat out bluffs, then widen your range a bit once players start playing you tight.

You might have reached that plateau where you are playing automatically and no longer really thinking about your hands. Break out of that. Work more on understanding why you are making the decisions you are making. Play less, but focus on being present when you play.
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