Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,307
If no one has bet yet, the base of your analysis should be addressing the following questions:
Can I bet for value?
Can I bet as a bluff or a semi-bluff
If someone has bet already, you want to ask the same questions (except now you are contemplating raising) and add the following question as well:
Do I have pot odds/implied odds to call a bet?
Obviously it gets a lot more complicated than that.
Preflop you want to think less about the math (unless you are in an all-in situation) and more about what kind of post-flop situation you want. Who do you want in the pot with you? How will you exploit those players post-flop? Do you want a big pot or a small pot? A multi-way pot or head's up?
On the flop you first need to read the board and evaluate your situation. Given the action so far, what are your opponents likely to have and how likely are you to be ahead? If you figure yourself to be behind and are facing a bet, you have to decide whether you have the odds to call, the odds + fold equity to raise, the ability to move your opponent off his hand on a later street. If you figure that you are ahead and are facing a bet or raise, you want to ask yourself whether, if you re-raise and are called, you are more likely to be ahead or behind. You also have to evaluate the SPR and think about whether or not you want to be get pot-committed.
If no one has bet yet and you figure you are behind, you have to ask yourself whether a bet will make enough better hands fold to be profitable as a bluff, or if you have enough FE to make a profitable semi-bluff. If no one has bet yet and you figure you are ahead, you have to ask yourself whether if you bet and are called, you are more likely to be ahead or behind. Again, you also have to evaluate the SPR and think about whether or not you want to be get pot-committed. Anytime you bet you should have a plan for what to do if you are raised (folding is often a fine plan).
The turn is basically the same thing as the flop, except now there is only one more card to come, the pot is bigger and you have hopefully narrowed your opponent's range a little.
On the river, again - if I bet, will enough worse hands call (betting for value)? Will enough better hands fold (a profitable bluff). If you are facing a bet, you can ask the same 2 questions w/r/t raising. If the answer is that you can't bet or bluff profitably, you want to know whether your chances of having the best hand are high enough based on the pot odds you are getting to make the call.
This is probably a lot more than you asked for, but it is really only the beginning. I didn't even touch on bet sizing. In any case, the cliff notes are
Preflop - use your play to put yourself in a good post-flop situation
Post-flop - ask yourself whether you can bet for value, whether you can profitably bluff/semi-bluff, or whether you have the odds to call, keeping SPR and committment in mind always.
