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09-15-2018 , 04:50 PM
Hello there, another question. I was thinking about this and decided to ask for advice. For a year I have been trying to play serious in Mtts and multi table sngs and this has been "good" in general but slow, I have 12% ROI (2018) for about 6k sample.

Also I have been studing, maybe not enough but I can see improvement. What I think was (is) my biggest probles is that I am a natural nit. Have being fighting against that, sometimes going too far, sometimes behind the line. In time I am aproaching that "line" but as it is not my nature I constantly come an go.

Well.. I will write an example which I will take as a "global" example for risk aversion. I need to know if avoiding these spots is wrong, especially why and where is the line to avoid it or not.

In any mtt, sng multi, medium/late in tournament.

Hero is CO, BTN, SB, or BB with 20/30bb and gets dealt 88. Some medium stack guy who is opening a lot playing LAG opens from UTG+3. He has 15% OR from EP. Folds to Hero. Hero knows is not probable any of the people left to act is going to call unless they have a big hand.

Hero Folds.

Now, I know it is an EV+ push. But I just avoid to do it sometimes because I don't have a theorical idea about when is ok to take that kind of flip or not and risk your tourney life.

I think is ok to do it with 25- bb stack. So, if I play under a good BR management I should take this EV+ spot EVERYTIME?

Thanks a lot.
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09-15-2018 , 05:47 PM
15% isn't actually very LAG. Depending on how he plays he can call with about 1/3 of that when you shove. You have 36% against that range. Assuming antes to be 1bb total and villain minraises there is 4,5bb in the pot when you shove so you lose 6,1bb every time you get called but win 9bb before that happens. It's about a 3bb profit, which is a ton. Obviously you can get called by people behind you so if you're not in the BB you need to account for, although it isn't a drastic change because they can call even less than the opener can.

I don't think the money bubble changes this too much because you bust only 12% of the time when you shove and you increase your stack by a lot. On bigger payjumps things might be different but generally you shouldn't alter your strategy too drastically because then you end up playing no hands at all and just bleed out. Calling shoves is more tricky because you bust a lot more often due to the lack of fold equity.
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