Quote:
Originally Posted by Bona
You already know I suck at NL so take it for what it is worth but; the fact is while 24k hands takes a while to play and it sucks to have a minus number for a win rate, 3-4 coolers can have that much effect on your win rate over that many hands. Don't you suppose?
Open your data base. Look for the ten biggest loss hands. See if you played em right. If you did delete them. Presto better win rate. More confidence=pwn 50NL. imo. Doesnt work in limit but it should work in NL.
(The difference between having a slight negative win rate over a short stretch of hands and trying to invade Russia by land is that you get a second chance on your win rate )
Haha, I do think you're right; I'm confident my winrate is a bit better than 2.5bb/100, and I did lose a few major big hands to suckouts and such, though I can't be sure. That said, this is over a fairly significant sample, but I don't think I can blame it on variance too much. Even if I did lose 1-2 buyins due to bad beats my winrate is still quite poor, so that's no excuse. Definitely will work on it; perhaps it's time to get a coach.
Preflop Aggressor has something like a missed AK AQ, shoving villain has set or weaker overpair (?), gearing mostly to a set since he's shoving into 2 opponents, but he's short stacked and it's, 8.5 to get it in. Is stacking here terrible? On hindsight (I lose obv) it's a fold, but do you think this is a big leak?
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
View hand 13656
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
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BB: $11.45
UTG: $25.60
Hero (MP): $26.50
CO: $59.10
BTN: $10.20
SB: $25.25
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T
T
UTG raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25,
3 folds, BB calls $1
Flop: ($3.85) 5
6
2
(3 players)
BB checks,
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50,
BB raises to $5, UTG folds,
Hero raises to $25.25 all in, BB calls $5.20 all in
Turn: ($25.75) J
(2 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($25.75) 4
(2 players - 2 are all in)
Second hand:
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
View hand 13657
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
SB: $19.85
BB: $8.95
Hero (UTG): $25.00
MP: $24.05
CO: $30.25
BTN: $8.35
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with J
J
Hero raises to $1,
3 folds, SB calls $0.90,
1 fold
Flop: ($2.25) J
T
8
(2 players)
SB bets $1.25,
Hero raises to $5, SB calls $3.75
Turn: ($12.25) 3
(2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
River: ($17.25) 7
(2 players)
SB bets $11.35 all in, Hero folds
Super standard? How's my flop raise size? Do I shove it in to a 3bet on the flop? We are against a combo draw, weaker set, or made straight if it gets in on the flop, but we can't fold top set surely?
What if the river wasn't 7, am I correct in that nothing changes? Villain COULD be shoving a straight here, but I am far more inclined to think that he has a stronger straight or a flush (he can thin shove a stronger straight because he knows I will never check a flush there), but our hand is 90%+ beat, right?
Turn call is standard for implied odds to a boat afaik.