Quote:
Originally Posted by jim_money
Doesn't raising that huge setup problems on later streets? I understand that you have the better hand and you want to get more money in the pot. However, the majority of the time the flop will be uncoordinated and you can get value on each street. Raising that big preflop, then following up with a 25BB cbet is going to be trouble when you get a bad flop like this one.
/not arguing, kind of confused and interested to hear some advice
If the raise were to something like 6BB then this would be the case. Twelve when everyone starts with 75... if he called to hit a set he wasn't getting the right odds. If he called with anything he wasn't getting the right odds. So taking the hand as a whole you already won in one sense, but what does he call 250 with that he folds to a shove pre?
Now to the flop decision in isolation. The pot is 530 you bet 425 he calls the 425 and raises the rest of his stack (775)
you are getting 2155/775 if my arithmetic is correct. Call it 3-1 or a 25% winning % needed. Those are huge odds. These are chip odds rather than financial expectation but we will stick with chip odds.
OK give him a range of flush set or flush draw+pair (1 of each) and we are nearly at the odds we need
Board: Th 8h 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.215% 22.46% 00.76% 667 22.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 76.785% 76.03% 00.76% 2258 22.50 { KhKs, TcTs, AhKh }
Even with this rather ludicrous range for villain we are close to the chip odds we need. You have to be pretty sure you are dead to fold here.
So to the range we actually give villain. What do we know?
Quote:
As far as I can recall I haven't played with this player before as well.
O noes. Still we know he called a bet he probably shouldn't have and we know it's the first hand of a $1 SNG. Now do we think he has a set or flush over half the time here? O wait make that two-thirds of the time
Is he not shoving an overpair with a big heart? Or top pair likewise? What is he calling pre but not shoving the flop?
Will he have more than half as many flush draws as flushes and sets combined? (the tourney life thing has a little merit but not very much, anyone want to quantify what edge you would fold here for survival reasons I'd love to see it)
No he wont. My microSNG experience also says so. Sans a massive read of some kind which does not exist here there is no way anyone advocating a fold can draw up a realistic range to support binning the bullets. I haven't seen anyone even try tbh