At the risk of sounding stupid what does the below graph imply to you? Orange is all-in equity, blue is total winnings (playing on PokerStars and using the HUD Poker Co-Pilot, playing microstakes tournaments). I keep reading it's "a crude estimation of luck" but I'm thinking there may be more to it given the significant disparity between the two lines, maybe I'm getting the money in at the wrong time, calling too many all-ins, going all-in with too many chips on too short an odd? I don't know but I don't want to just look at it as oh well I'm unlucky so nothing I can do, because that won't get me anywhere.

It just means how well you're doing when you're all-in, that's it.

The blue line being below the orange line means you're winning less than your share of the pots when you're all in.
It isn't very meaningful over a 16k hand sample.

It's more accurate than the blue line in determining skill, since it factors in one factor of luck.
That said, there are a LOT of other factors in running / good bad, so it doesn't really mean much.

As an example: you go all-in with KK vs AA pre, you have about 20% equity.
So your orange line is going to go down 80%, while the blue line is either going up by 100% of down by 100%.

There's an entire thread about this in the theory forum.

Orange line is just a slightly better approximation of winrate than blue line. Broadly speaking, you have no control over this divergence and it's possible for it to go either way regardless of how you play.

Basically you cannot really influence how the two lines diverge and should not worry about it. It's a bit unlucky but also completely standard to have a divergence of this size. There is nothing you can do to to change it.

The right way to improve is not by fixating on these two lines, but by actually analyzing hands that you've played and trying to identify mistakes to fix.

there is not gonna be a graph that accounts for how lucky you are accurately because theres way too much to take into account.

if i ship w mid set on 829 and run into top set, do i deserve to lose my stack 96% of the time for making a bad decision?

being put in that spot IS bad luck, but there's not a chart for it.

ur chart is just the all in equity of the final decision, without taking anything else into account, rudimentary