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Implied Odds and Folding Out Too Much Equity Implied Odds and Folding Out Too Much Equity

12-16-2020 , 12:17 PM
First time posting to 2+2, so go easy on me if this is the wrong forum.

I've been playing for about a year now, and I find myself constantly making "disciplined" folds facing bad pot odds with drawing hands. For example, I almost always fold a flush draw facing a pot-sized turn bet or fold a weak gut-shot on the flop facing a 2/3 pot c-bet. I know that some draws can call in these spots due to implied odds, but I'm worried that I may be over folding.
Due to this concern I wonder:
1) Is there a particular strategy/resource you guys use to figure out what draws are more likely to realize their implied odds?
2) If not, should I just be randomizing in these spots? If so, should I set the randomizer at the equity of my hand, or some other value?
3) Lastly, is this even a leak at all? Is it still profitable to fold all drawing hands that aren't getting the right odds and only call with made hands in these spots?

Thanks!
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12-16-2020 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfabes98
1) Is there a particular strategy/resource you guys use to figure out what draws are more likely to realize their implied odds?
The less likely or obvious the draw, the better your chance to get paid. If the board reads 9h8h2d4c7h, people might get suspicious that you have JT or a flush. If the board is JT573r not many players expect for you to show up with 64 for the straight after you called their flop bet.
[qoute]2) If not, should I just be randomizing in these spots? If so, should I set the randomizer at the equity of my hand, or some other value?[/quote]
The first thing you should look at is your equity versus their range. If a specific hand is 50% call and 50% fold, you could use a randomizer. But that's not that likely.
Quote:
3) Lastly, is this even a leak at all? Is it still profitable to fold all drawing hands that aren't getting the right odds and only call with made hands in these spots?
It's a leak not to maximize your expected value. Absent any meta game stuff, you should do the thing that has the highest EV, wether that's calling, folding or raising.

At the table, you should see what your opponents go to showdown with to determine how likely it is for them to pay you off. If somebody calls the river only with 2 pair+ your implied odds might not be that great. But you might be able to exploit them if they're folding too much. If somebody calls a pot sized river bet with top pair no kicker when flush and straight draws materialized, you're probably having a decent amount of implied odds and can call wider on the turn.
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12-16-2020 , 06:01 PM
Very good response above .. It's very possible that you are still playing 'cards' and your opponents are playing 'poker', especially if there some history there.

1) Are you drawing to the nuts or 7th nuts?
2) Would you have any Showdown value if you only pair up/only improve slightly?
3) How deep are the stacks after you call? Is there enough .. a la set mining.
4) Do you think that this opponent will pay your off? Can you get these chips back from this opponent if you lose the hand? (There are some Players who I wont draw against since they don't provide enough 'future' action.)
5) Is there any fold equity against their range? Opening up the door to a c/r where you may take the pot down without completing your draw (or you just need to force the action since you wont get paid.)

Again, read above .. Are you over folding? They only way to know this is to pay attention to the Showdowns as suggested to see if that specific opponents range/style is wide enough. Does the betting story match up to the previous action?

If you've watched a lot of streams you've heard plenty where a Player 'makes a stand' and the other Player 'always' ends up with a big hand 'that time'. This is usually a combination of over-folding and then over-playing a hand.

Also pay close attention to how they play when you are the aggressor v the 'caller'. GL

PS .. #4 is a leak .. kind of. But I use the 'I play live' excuse to deviate from standard ABC EV play. I don't think I do it to the point that they exploit it. But I will show them a tight fold in an effort to plant a seed that if I stay in a hand with them that I actually do have something (which opens up bluffing). It also can fool the table into thinking that I would fold those type of hands against them ..when I really wouldn't based on 'their' range.
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12-16-2020 , 10:25 PM
It's completely fine to fold a draw when you are not getting close to the right price. Most players make the opposite mistake, they over estimate their implied odds, when your direct pot odds are far more important. Also take into account if you are not closing the action in multiway pots, since then your effective odds will be even worse because the third player could raise causing you to forfeit your call.
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12-21-2020 , 07:01 AM
What hand would you prefer on Th9hQsh4, 8h8d or AhJc?

Against a BTN opening range, these hands both have almost exactly 50% equity. They both have a gutty+FD. 88 is a made hand, but AhJc is drawing to more nutted stuff. So which hand would you prefer to continue with?

Here is the equity distribution of these hands across the river:



Ahjc is either the nuts or air on the river, while 8h8d can never really make a huge hand. For this reason, Ahjc will usually be a much higher EV hand. Being able to cleanly outdraw your opponent's value is a key factor when considering implied odds.

Sometimes this means that very nutted implied odds hands like the nut flush draw will outperform even strong made hands. Especially against opponents who overplay their range.
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12-22-2020 , 09:34 AM
all of the above is great to be thinking about and incorporating into your game.
being a beginner the most important thing is to fix your biggest leaks right away as they will break you. and yours is basic knowledge which means its time for you to read all you can and think about what you have read and use the experts here on the forums to help you.
when learning about poker it is always best to play much tighter and fold more than calling more. generally in a pot the person calling will be the loser.
the examples you gave seem like you should be folding most times without something to go with the draw and that is important. but there is so much to know and think about in each situation you face.
if you can do that you have a future in poker and it takes ability and work.
having said that,, yes folding most hands that dont have immediate odds is best especially if not on the last drawing street. and implied odds are very difficult to guess as there are too many variables, so in general you need more odds than you would think.
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