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I think I see my mistake, thoughts? I think I see my mistake, thoughts?

09-14-2017 , 12:10 PM
1/3 Live game only been at the table for 45 minutes and have been dealt quality hands which take down the pot preflop with $12 raises multiple times. Not much action so far.

Villain 1 $250
Villain 2 $190
Hero $345

Villain 1 is UTG and limps in, folds to hero in MP who raises to $15 with AxKs, Villain 2 raises to $35, Villain 1 and hero call. Pot $103.

Flop As 3s 9d.

UTG bets out $50, hero calls and villain 2 shoves. UTG snap calls. Hero has all covered and needs to call $105 into a three way pot of ~$460 with UTG having $60 behind.

Thought process is I have Ks which is the nut draw blocker so it's unlikely anyone is getting tricky with a draw. UTG likely has an A in his hand but Villain 2 probably has me crushed.

As played I don't think I can call. Thoughts before reading spoiler please.

Spoiler:
As it turns out I did fold. I think having TPTK and backdoor nut flush draw was good enough to raise the flop and not doing that left me wide open to having to make a difficult decision when V2 shoved. V1 had AJ which he wasn't folding and V2 had 8s10s and got it in with flush draw backdoor straight, neither get there and V1 drags a nice pot with meager holdings.
If I raise the flop V2 likely folds or at the very least I am priced into calling his shove. Not raising the flop was the fatal error, right?
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 12:40 PM
Next time, don't put the spoiler in if you don't want people to know.

TPTK is good enough to get your stack in on the flop with a draw on the board. Jam.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Next time, don't put the spoiler in if you don't want people to know.

TPTK is good enough to get your stack in on the flop with a draw on the board. Jam.
I put it there for two reasons. First, I think people just like to know the outcome. Second, maybe I'm just being results oriented an want people to consider that as well.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 01:43 PM
Shove preflop
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 02:04 PM
The absolute last point in the hand where you have to decide to get it in is after you interpret UTGs action as "likely has an A in his hand". If UTG has an ace a lot of the time, the very slim change of villain 2 having AA is trending towards 0, unless there are more than four aces in the deck.

As a very general rule of thumb, whenever you face a situation where you are getting extremely good odds to call/stack-off and you have trouble finding hands that beat yours, you shouldn't fold.

FWIW, it's way easier to come up with hands that beat you for villain 1 because his actions are pretty consistent with how lots of 1/3 players would play A9/A3/99/33 than for villain 2 because the vast majority of players wouldn't play those hands like that.

I don't think not raising the flop was a mistake btw. You can find reasons to GII preflop and as played the flop is a mandatory shove after V1 calls V2s all-in. Every other decision in the hand is at least debatable, that one isn't.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 06:45 PM
I see V2 represented strength before the flop, but with 2 Aces out, the chance of him having the other 2 are very slim. If the stars aligned against me and he has them, then the stars aligned against me. V1 I think could have like you said an Ax or mid pair and a flush draw that he's betting in case you other 2 missed, so I would have raised him on the flop cause personally I never underestimate people's willingness to gamble.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-14-2017 , 09:10 PM
not shoving pre is a huge mistake here

as played, you have the nuts with that spr, as long as you dont fold theres not really a way to play it wrong
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-16-2017 , 06:54 AM
^^ This and I haven't read the spoiler. don't really need to coz you pretty much telegraph it

Quote:
As played I don't think I can call.
nnnooooooooooooooo
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:00 PM
Given stack sizes and action it's hard to find a reason to fold. You are going to lose these sometimes but overall is +ev in these small stakes games.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-20-2017 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatboy54
^^ This and I haven't read the spoiler. don't really need to coz you pretty much telegraph it



nnnooooooooooooooo

His range is not 99 and A9.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-20-2017 , 04:23 PM
The $50 seemed like value to me more than a blocker bet, which I would expect to be maybe 5-10 smaller. So putting V1 on Ax is something I can go with.

I guess you could raise/shove Flop but I like letting V2 (and V1 potentially) stay in the pot, so I flat here a lot. Now with V2 shoving and V1 flatting I'm a little worried about sets now but as long as I can 'safely' range myself ahead of V1 I can call it off here risking a 'net loss' amount of $45 to win a bunch!! (Lose 105 in main but win 60 in side).

You have backdoor flush and potentially backdoor 2 pair/trips in your favor while getting those 'net' odds for calling into the main. It is very unlikely that V1 folds to your shove here. GL
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-21-2017 , 11:30 AM
I like a call without a spade in my hand, and I like a fold with a spade.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-21-2017 , 01:49 PM
How about a 4-bet to $100 after villain 1 calls the re-raise? You're risking $100 to win $85. Very happy to take the pot down here and you have good fold equity still. Then no matter what action either villain takes or what the flop ends up being if you get there, jam.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote
09-22-2017 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
You're risking $100 to win $85.
no, you are not, you are commited to both villians if you 4bet, just shove. I said it already, but let me say it again: not shoving pre is a HUGE mistake here and it will cost you a lot in the long run.
I think I see my mistake, thoughts? Quote

      
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