"Our opponent can’t fold more than 50 percent of the time or else our raise will show an immediate profit, "

Janda, Matthew. No-Limit Hold 'em For Advanced Players: Emphasis on Tough Games (p. 150). Two Plus Two Publishing LLC. Kindle Edition.

this is not the first time i've seen this and I just take it for what it says instead of learning what it actually means. can someone help explain why this statement is true?

thanks,

Depending on the bet sizing, the percentage will change, but to really see this idea, imagine what does happen if your opponent folds too much.

If at any point in the hand, you make a bluff at a sizing that is equal to the amount of the pot, you win the same amount when your opponent folds as you lose when your opponent calls.

When that happens, if your opponent folds more than 50% of the time, you will win more often than you lose. And because your win and loss are equal amounts, winning more often means you win money. You'll steal the pot so often that your losses when called are canceled out.

Janda's point is that tough players should never give their opponents a chance to show a profit on their bluffs--because anytime bluffing is profitable, you can always just bluff more and more to show more profit. So he takes it as a given that a good opponent will be continuing against your bets often enough that we can't just bluff whenever we want.

wow, what an answer. thank you so much.