I'm considering alternative career paths. I like playing poker. I can study well and I'm smarter than the average person. Right now I'm around the beginner-intermediate level. If I devoted 8 hours a day to playing and studying poker for the next year, what sort of winrate could I expect at NL10 (for example)? Is it even worth it to try? Will RTA ruin online poker by the time I really figure out what I'm doing?

Thanks for any insights. I'd rather not spend time learning the game if I don't have a solid chance to beat it.

Some general thoughts....

Poker is still, and probably always will be, beatable. Of course that doesn't mean that whatever form of poker you enjoy will be good.

Rake at NL10 is a killer.

IMO almost everybody will make more money putting their efforts in some traditional career field rather than poker.

You need to love poker if you want to do it full time. It's a great hobby/side income but it can be a hard career. You have options besides immediately devoting your life to it.

I think online poker for a living in 2023 is a pretty tough way to make a living and the hours of grinding will just wear you down and make most of us hate the game in the end.

What poker is though is a ok side hustle/hobby one can easily make up a few extra $$$$ at playing micro/low stakes. I play mainly MTT's and have done ok over the last 20 years. You're not gonna get rich but not many people can say they have a hobby that they make money at.

My advice would be to get a decent paying job that affords you too live, that you like or at least don't hate lol. That way you have a bit of money to start playing poker with to build a bankroll. Start at stake you're comfortable, can afford and just build from there. As your bankroll and skill grow you move up in stakes. When you're not working be playing and/or studying poker to improve. See how high you can go while still having the security of a job.

Best of luck.


Cheers!!!

mostly depends on where you live, in a 1st world country it's a terrible idea, but it makes more and more sense as your area's gdp goes down

If you enjoy the challenge of playing poker, start by playing as a hobby. Learn how to improve your game, keep your day job. If at any point, it becomes clear to you that continuing to work you day job is costing you money, then it's time for a poker career.

Embarking on a career in poker is no different than starting any small business. It requires 100% focus and dedication and the commitment to putting poker first.

I think it is only worth playing poker for a living if you can play 500NL+ profitably (but this depends on where you live and what are your costs of living).
Being a pro is mostly about really good game selection, not regwaring, not losing to the scam high rake nowadays and being mentally tough enough to pull through downswings which will occur, especially on higher stakes where you will have a smaller edge and usually pretty low volume.

I would advise you to try playing casually while studying and you will see how you will do in the next few weeks/months, but I think you shouldn't make poker your priority.
If you do exceptionally well after those few months, then go ahead and go for it. You never know.

If it's something you really want to do, and would regret not trying, then by all means go for it. Worst case scenario you will lose some time and some money, not much else that could go wrong tbh.

a point that is usually only alluded to in these threads(directly above 500 nl minimum is recommended) is the skill jump we see at games that can provide the expert with healthy lifestyle sustaining income. the lowest level that a good pro should play is the level that provides a healthy lifestyle. if your boss said youre working 14 hours today for half pay, would you like that job? no, so thats why professional experts dont grind levels that dont provide healthy life sustaining income. sometimes good players bust and grind up from low levels, but this the exception, and is usually evident of some type of leak. the pitfalls are everywhere and the path to success isnt always clear.

the exact stake which provides such opportunity isnt set in stone. your winrate, bankroll, desired risk of ruin, and the games standard deviation all play a significant part in determining if a game will provide satisfactory income for a pro.

500 nl seems a good guess for the lowest live game that a pro should play given modest overhead cost. i would expect significant increase in the number of experts you find jumping from 1/3 to 2/5. there will still be random donks with 500 bucks to blow of course. there will be vanilla nit tags and goofy lags, but theyre not making life sustaining income, if any at all(maybe after comps, idk).

online is different because of multitabling. everyone has their max table threshold. the effect is that great players already have their life sustaining tables open. if theres room under their table cap, experts have no reason not to jump in lower games if available. thus many more solid players are in 50 nl to 300 nl online, as compared with live.

It’s feasible for a few years but the emotional impact on you probably isnt worth it. Maybe get a pt job to subsidize it