I've been a pretty big nit my whole poker career. Recently I've been trying to get more value in good spots and calling less when raised.

One spot which I've found particularly difficult is where I'm betting all streets and on the river villain shoves, I often call because of the odds I'm getting even though against most villains I can only beat a bluff (which they're rarely doing)


Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (UTG): $35.34
MP: $37.41
CO: $25.75
BTN: $31.72
SB: $26.26
BB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.80) K 7 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, SB folds

Turn: ($6.80) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

River: ($16.80) T (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $23.87 all in, Hero calls $13.87


That's just one example I found. Villain was 19/14 over a couple hundred hands. Instead of just saying fold on the river, what if villain's remaining stack was less than $10? What factors are most important in deciding between a call or fold.

Hand strength?
Pot odds?
Villain type?

I often miss river value bets because I don't think my hand is strong enough to call a raise/shove and feel if I'm getting 4-to-1, I just can't fold.

Appreciate some advice in how to avoid these spots and/or what to do when they happen. Thanks

i think what you did there will show a profit long term. i'm not even sure you played the river wrong. maybe it's a read thing. i'm not folding tptk to a minraise ever. but if it makes you puke, don't bet river.

You need to be good here ~21.5% of the time to make the call. I really doubt even 10% of the time villain is bluffing a missed FD because this is a suicidal spot to bluff after you show immense strength betting three streets. He's also never raising worse hands for value, so all you have is a bluffcatcher on river. Just don't snapcall because of odds, think about it, click time bank, think about it some more and go through this thought process and you'll realise you're good here like 2% of the time against a 19/14.

I would also valuebet river smaller because all the draws bricked so he's only paying you off with KQ that might find a fold on river since your betsizing indicates that your hand here is always at least TPTK (if the 19/14 is decent enough to handread accurately).

To the poster above, river is played wrongly imo, it's quite an easy fold after we 3barrel and get popped on the river when all the draws bricked because nobody bluffs here ever considering the strength we've shown and nobody is raising worse hands for value. At OP's stakes at least (maybe you could bet/call at 2nl, 5nl etc).

cant avoid a spot with ak, learn to play better though.. whos the villain & do you think your getting 3streets here for something you beat?.. if your playing a tag you gota understand they probably wont call the turn without a king & the heart so i dont think your getting 3streets off tptk vs a reg here ever, so i dont mind check calling the river if no heart falls or check folding if hes really nitty & you can eliminate draws out of his range... just gotta know villain types & how to play them man, i dont think this spot is a cooler at all, he has a set alot, unless hes a fish or real laggy villain you shouldnt be trying to get 3streets there

I tend to prefer checking the river and calling anything up to about a half pot bet in this hand. In general, microstakes players don't make huge turn or river bets without the nuts or something darn close to it.

Yeah, I forgot to mention I prefer a c/c to let bricked draws bluff at us and to pot control basically.

EV of losing less when behind and picking up value from missed draws that bluff > EV of gaining a vbet from KQ, QJ, hero calls etc.

Check river. The heart draw and backdoor flush missed. If you bet a lot of times he just folds, but he might bet if you check.

you later said c/call is best so i won't belabor the point but if you really can fold to a min-shove then go ahead and v-bet $10.
bet as much as you can so that you aren't pot committed if he shoves. if that number < your turn bet, just check.

Grunch ...


Yea fold river to his raise. The info I have is he is a 19/14 player. So it looks like he's probably at least somewhat competent. You almost never have a better hand than him here once he shoves the river. I think he has a set most of the time.

Just think about it. He doesn't have KQ. He would probably call river with KQ but certainly wouldn't shove. Would he really try to bluff with missed hearts with slightly more than a minraise?

Fold to the river shove.


And if he had less than $10 left than you wouldn't have to do anything because you would have just shoved the river in the first place.

Yeah, u cant really bet the river - u only have 1 pair, and u r betting out all missed draws that u might get value against if checked. And not many hands that u have beat would call (perhaps KQ), and u commit yourself to calling a shove. So the value lays in check calling, as u get away cheaper against hands that beat u, and u might get more value against missed draws.

J9 Villian balancing his range?

OP, I like this hand, I also think it's great that you brought it here to discuss coz we can all learn.

I'm not sure about your line, I think we need to check on one street, prolly the turn, coz we want to get to showdown, and we want to keep our stack.

If we check turn, the odds on the river are not as good(callling a jam) coz we inflated our implied odds by betting the Turn, imho this gives us fake pot odds on the river coz we bet the river, and not checked.

In real time game I would find it hard to fold regardless, maybe it doesn't matter, and all chips are going in.

Nice hand.

Would like to see the results.

What if villain understands all this logic and uses it in this hand to shove knowing that we are thinking exactly this way? :O If someone applies this logic or is a supergenius then you must reverse-reverse all hand logic :< harhar.

No but really at these stakes its slightly dodgy but id be inclined to pay $13 just to find out for future reference if this guy would pull something like this. This is one of those hands where if the guy is decent but not great, you can figure out his whole game based on what he showdowns here.

With a TPTK versus a 19/14 you will rarely get 3 streets of value by betting 3 streets. Plan to check one of the streets (if he folds to c-bets often and it's unlikely he hit the flop with anything, you can even check the flop with a plan to extract value later). If he calls your big flop and turn bets, you are rarely betting good on the river unless he missed his draws, in which case he obviously will not pay the river unless you let him bluff by c/c. As played, fold the river, he is not bluffing

I meant if his shove was for less than $10 more. Like I bet $10 on the river and he shoves $18 total instead of $23 total. At what point is it impossible to fold based on how much more I had to call.

This.

The only thing I see with checking river is that he might check back a hand like KQ, but he may also bet it for thin value.

How would he play a set on this board?
How often does he fold to a flop cbet and turn cbet?