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How accurate is Equilab? How accurate is Equilab?

07-28-2023 , 08:15 PM
I am referring to Texas Holdem No Limit.

I have been playing poker for a while now and gradually improving everyday. I have not spent a lot of time using programs like Equilab or equivalents, preferring to learn from experience and my playing has improved a lot since leaving these programs behind.

Just to-day, I decided to go back to basics a little bit to see if some of the things I was taught in the early days made more sense now that I have a reasonable amount of experience. I decided to look again at stats from Equilab. I am surprised to find I am more confused.

In the beginners guides they teach that with post flop raises, you should consider all in, with AK suited.

Equilab suggests you are more likely to be beaten by any pair apart from a pair of twos. Therefore why is all in suggested?

I understand the difficulty you could find yourself in with a pair of twos in later rounds in normal play, but with an all in there are no later rounds to consider. Just the turn of 5 cards.

We are talking about a heads up bet between two players.

Furthermore when comparing AK suited with a pair of 6s the stats read 47.89% - 52.11%. If comparing AK Suited against a pair of 7s the stats read 47.71% - 52.29%. The chances of winning with the pair appear to rise the higher the pair.

This is confusing for me. When I consider all of the potential results from the turn of 5 more cards. There are no more options available to beat a pair of 6's than what is available to beat a pair of 7's. Straights are not effected as neither player holds blockers again potential straights. From 2's to 5's there are blockers involved and likewise from 9s and above there are blockers involved. But to me 6s, 7s or 8s make no difference to the potential outcome. I would have expected the calculations to be exactly the same. This causes me to question the results from these programs.

Am I missing something or is my understanding of the calculations from Equilab wrong?
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
07-29-2023 , 11:14 AM
Equilab is accurate. Presumably there is some weird 4liner stuff that leads to extremely marginal equity shifts pp vs AKs -- for example, the high end of a straight to the 6 would be T987 whereas the high end of a straight to the 8 would be QJT98 (where AK would have the higher straight, and therefore higher eq overall). Anyway, super marginal stuff like this aside, the numbers are accurate.

The reason AK often plays very aggressively is also something you're missing. While AK loses to any pp, it does much better against stackoff ranges than a hand like 66 (which is completely crushed by overpairs). Also, AK blocks our opponent from having AA and KK, while underpairs don't block villain's strongest value. Raw heads up equity is not really a valuable way to think about the game, though it can be a starting point.
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
07-30-2023 , 06:25 PM
There are and should be some subtle differences.

With 66, if AK makes a 1-card wheel it still loses.

With all those middle pairs, AK wins when the board is double-paired with both pairs higher than the pocket pair (so something like TT993) and chops on full houses where the pair on board is higher than the pocket pair (like 222JJ). The higher the pocket pair, the less often this happens.
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
08-09-2023 , 08:34 PM
Sorry guys, but these answers are missing my point.

I understand middle pairs are easily beaten by over pairs etc.

Here I am talking about an all in bet between two players. I am questioning how the probability of winning as calculated by Equilab is slightly different when comparing AKs against a pair of 6s or a pair of 7s.

If my opponent goes all in with AKs and I alone decide to call the bet. My chances of winning are exactly the same with 2 6s or 2 7s. Therefore the stats from Equilab should be the same. This discrepancy albeit small makes me question the accuracy of this type of software
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
08-10-2023 , 06:59 AM
the poster above you explained that exact example, 66 beats AK on 2345x board, but AK wins vs 22-55 and 77, it's unlikely scenarios like this one that explain those tiny discrepancies. Equilab is accurate.
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
08-10-2023 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billybunter

If my opponent goes all in with AKs and I alone decide to call the bet. My chances of winning are exactly the same with 2 6s or 2 7s. Therefore the stats from Equilab should be the same. This discrepancy albeit small makes me question the accuracy of this type of software
Either the software isn't accurate, or your assumption that your chances are identical is incorrect. The only reason you think that your chances are the same with 66 and 77 is because you can't think of a scenario in which they would be different.

Who wins with a board of 77889 - 66 or AK. AK does, because 66 is counterfeited.
Who wins with a board of 66889 - 77 or AK. 77 does, because 8877 is better than 8866A.

There is a concrete example of a situation where 77 does better than 66 against AK. Since you can replace the 88 pair with any other pair between 88 and QQ, and the 9 kicker with most other kickers, you can see that there are quite a few combinations of boards that result in 77 being better than 66. On the flip side, as pointed out, there are hands where the board is 2345X and the 66 will outperform 77 vs AK.

The point is that there are differences between 66 and 77 with respect to how they do against AK, so you shouldn't expect the percentages to be identical.
How accurate is Equilab? Quote
08-10-2023 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billybunter
Sorry guys, but these answers are missing my point.

I understand middle pairs are easily beaten by over pairs etc.

Here I am talking about an all in bet between two players. I am questioning how the probability of winning as calculated by Equilab is slightly different when comparing AKs against a pair of 6s or a pair of 7s.

If my opponent goes all in with AKs and I alone decide to call the bet. My chances of winning are exactly the same with 2 6s or 2 7s. Therefore the stats from Equilab should be the same. This discrepancy albeit small makes me question the accuracy of this type of software
Are you doubling down that equilab is wrong after multiple people explain to you why the preflop evs of pps vs AK aren't identical?
How accurate is Equilab? Quote

      
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