Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Might be helpful to your own learning progress if you would check the numbers and think about the result before making a statement like that.
Indeed I was at work and was giving a rough estimate.
I guess when I said "you're only
like an
apx 25-30%" it indicated I wasn't entirely sure and clearly didn't run numbers, I didn't feel that I needed too since I was trying to convey that AA isn't invincible and that making the 3b larger is correct. But after running numbers vs 4 reasonable hands (including pp, suited connectors, Ax, etc, I found that AA is about 40%-45%. If I add a 5th villain, and give him an additional suited connector Hero is now only about 32%.
In terms of my learning curve, when I min 3bet with AA and get 4 callers, I now know I have slightly more equity then I thought
but I mean come on, do you honestly think memorizing the estimated % of a 5 way flop with AA is crucial to someone's "learning progress".
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
To approach the problem from the other direction: if AA had 30% equity against a random hand on that specific flop, that would mean each of the four other hands would have 70%/4 = 17.5% equity. Does that sound reasonable to you?
Well given that any pocket pair or suited connector is around 20% and there's 4 hands so I don't think my guess was that unreasonable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
We know that AA vs. 4 random hands preflop is ~55%. Given that flop, I am pretty sure that number stays roughly the same on the flop, somewhere between 52-58%.
The odds vs. 4 random hands is 55%, if you give the villain random hands(from KK - 23o), not hands that people voluntarily choose to play. Obviously the flop is favorable for AA but wishing for this dry of a board vs 4 villains seems like a mistake, I doubt I win with AA 55% of the time when this many players see the flop, but who knows I think I might have > 10 hands in my history that saw that many players post flop with me having AA and even if I did I don't think giving me an extra x% number equity will matter when deciding to cbet or call a check jam on turn/river since playing multiway with this many players is pretty damn hard to put specific players on ranges
tl;dr raise more preflop and that will change the whole dynamic of hand.
Last edited by AznblackhawkCo; 07-28-2017 at 08:02 PM.