hey guys I have a question, let's say that I am on a 3bet pot and I hit a SET on FLOP, and after I bet 2/3 pot Villain goes ALL IN. since I have almost 80% equity against him I should normally call right?

But what if his HUD stats tell me that he don't bluff a lot and probably have a something strong?
What if the flop is wet, coordinated and 2 of the flop cards can form a greater set potentially?

This other factors would be strong enough to fold a hand that have 70-80% equity against his range on that spot?

I would like to have a better idea about what circunstances can make you fold a hand that is strong in equity


Thanks in advance

If there can be two higher sets villain could have top two pair as well, which is more likely than a set
9 combos of top two pair
only 3 combos of each set

if the board is wet villain could have any sort of draw as well

even if we're behind a straight or a flush, we can hit a full, so we still have some equity

You should (almost) never fold a set on the flop and you should be very happy getting all the money in almost always.

If you want more specific feedback it's better to post an actual hand.

You will need several more pieces of information to help us answer. #1 would be

what is the effective stack size?

oh yes, there's the possiblity of your set become a full house and you win a big pot if villain have a flush or a straight since they will hardly fold, that makes more worthy to call. I think you would have 6 outs on flop and 9 outs on turn to hit your full house, that changes things a bit.

yeah an actual hand would be better to discuss this spot, I'll paste a hand here next time I face this same situation


100bb stack size
6max
NL2

I feel pretty confident saying that we should basically never fold sets in 3bps on the flop. Even if villain has a straight or a flush already, we still have good equity. Villain can also stack off strong hands like 2pair, top pair top kicker, overpair, combo draw, or pair + draw type hands. We also have pot odds. The only true disaster scenario is if we're getting oversetted, but like...it's 100bb deep 3bp, sometimes we are just meant to lose our stack.

I hope nobody comes in here (after 100bb effective clarification) and says "it depends," because this is one of those spots where it reaaaaally doesn't Contextual factors and adjustments are an important skill in poker. But it's also important to recognize spots where we have mandatory stack-offs with very strong hands, to not mindgame ourselves in those spots, and to accept the fact that sometimes we are going to get stacked in those situations and that's ok

if you KNOW he has a str8 or a flush, and you have a set.. just run a pot odds equity calc w ur ~30% to boat

only time i think this comes up is Plo or if you c his cards.

Obviously, more detail would help, but the default starting point is simple.

In the vast majority of situations, when you flop a set, you want to get all your chips in the middle.

A rule of thumb I once saw says that if you lose with a set and don’t lose a lot of money, then you played it wrong.

Another rule of thumb is that not all rules of thumb are correct but I think this one is.

To add to this, you cost yourself more money in the long run by playing a flopped set timidly because you don't want to get stacked than you do by getting it in and accepting the occasional time to do lose your stack.

Being adequately rolled for the stakes you play helps with this. There is nothing as liberating in poker as being able to shrug off a loss by thinking "no big deal, it's only one buy-in."

what about this hand? this is a simulation of a SB vs BB 3bet pot, when the Js show up on turn the equity of my set dropped from 76,5% to 48%, even if the J was of clubs instead of spades and doesn't completed a flush draw I would still have just 51% equity. considering that I'm OOP what I should do in this situation? check-call? check-fold?

If you understand pot-odds, one of the most basic concepts in poker, you wouldn't be asking that question.
If you also understand the definition and requirements of a value bet, you have your answer.

I think I know you, you're the NL5 player trying to sell "coaching" for NL2 players for $100 showing as proof of your hability just a sample size of 5k hands where you made some bucks lol

how is your cooaching business going? with all that proof you show you should be busy all day with clients right?

about your comment, I know how to calculate pot odds however I don't practice a lot. that's a fact, I don't hide that. I'm just a beginner with a lot of leaks to improve and that's no shame at all, I'll always ask what I think I should ask. I'm everyday working on my game and that's all that matters.

I think a serious coach would give solid and specific answers that would provide value for the comunity instead of just be rude and give vague advice like that, don't you think "microstakes coach"?

That's the spirit mate, be rude to the people giving you free advise!
Hey I wasn't polite, boohoo ... I told you both concepts that matter here, if you'd look them up and apply them to your question you have your answer.

By 5k, do you mean the 11k sample of this year from my first post?
Or did you mean the 26k or 37k sample from that same post?
Or maybe you meant the 15k sample from a month ago? Or maybe the 21k sample?
Wait, that's like 60k+ hands? Close to 5k!

Good luck trying to find anyone who will give you the value I offer for $100
I definitely won't be giving you any more free lessons.

the fact that you are giving free advice doesn't give you the right to be rude or say what people should ask on a forum or not, that's just my point

sound like u 2 need to resolve some tension with a cam2cam sesh

or getting a room at the local Motel 666.

Move on, fellows.
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i might be suited, how dare you assume that i'm offsuit