My question is if we go all in on the flop w/ all the triples, sets and 2 pairs are we denying equity in the long run vs all the Straights and Flush draws?

Can we over bet and still have any advantage? Or 3/4 pot is enough to deny it?

Thanks

You’re basically asking if those made hands will cause flush and straight draws to fold.

From a strict math perspective, if you make an all in flop bet of 3/4Pot, your opponent requires equity of at least 0.75/2.50=30% for a +EV call. Your opponent has that equity with a straight or flush draw but not by much.

Factors such as action on previous hands, stack size, position, tournament standing, bluff potential, etc., can modify that conclusion.

In all cases, when you deny proper calling odds, you want your opponent to call. Especially in the situations above, where you have redraws OTR if the hit theirs OTT.

Problem is, you never be certain whether or not they're drawing or which draw they have.

Yes.

Even a half pot bet should suffice to deny your opponent the proper pot odds to chase a straight or a flush. 8 outs will hit on the next street about 16% of the time, requiring 5:1 odds.

Okay, but the question referred to an all-in bet so in that case villain's hit % is about double the 16%.

I’d guess you’re asking for bad reasons.

Pricing out draws should not be your primary concern.

one reference point to remember is: its profitable to go in with a set on a flush/straight board IF you are getting greater than 2:1 on your call, and thats worse case scenario (someone has a flush/someone blocks some of your f.h outs) You have ~30% equity to F.H so if two other people are all in with you, you're in good shape. 2p is much much less equity.

OP's first question is easy math ... yes, large bets deny equity ALL THE TIME, not just in the long run.

OP's second question is now 'poker' related but I refer to 'scared money syndrome' as suggested above. If your betting pattern only attacks the highest ranges of your opponents you miss out on all the VALUE you might get from their whole range. We want VALUE in poker. And since our opponents don't show us their cards (most of the time) we shouldn't be betting worst (best) case scenarios all the time. Otherwise this happens A LOT ...

Hand #1 ... OP (KJ) ... V (A5) ... Flop AJJ ... OP c/jams 200bb wins 6bb

Hand #2 ... OP (A5) ... V (44) ... Flop A45 ... OP c/jams 200bb, loses 200bb

Now OP just need 33 more hands to catch up winning 6bb at a time ... ... to break even.


OP, you are right ... Poker is a 'long run' venture. There are times when you will win 200bb in the KJ v A5 hand, but typically the best you can expect is maybe 10bb. There is one thing for sure, it will be VERY rare to win 200bb by c/jamming the Flop.

Betting is 'in the moment' ... You need to bet $1 more than they want to call if you want a fold AND $1 less than they want to call if you want a call. Finding that number is poker value, not math.

The math will guide you, but only you can read the spot. GL