this sounds rediculous but could someone calculate the odds of hitting quads two hands in a row with the same pocket pair? Last night my freind was playing play money and got pocket fours two hands in a row and flopped a set/rivered quads both times, I'm interested to know what the chances are of this.

1) the probability is quite low.

2) internet poker is not rigged.

3) if you know how to calculate the probability of a flush hitting with 2 cards to come, then you can answer your question with a calculator.

4) bear in mind the probability of any crazy event happening (royal flush over straight flush, quads over Full house, straight flush over nut flush) is not as low as the probability of a specific rare thing happening. In other words, you might be compelled to make this post if a number of "extremely rare" events happened, and you may quote a 1 in 25 million odds. However, the probability is much higher that you come across any number of unlikely hand sequences.

The odds of getting the same hand twice in a row are 1 in 221.

The odds of hitting quads with a pocket pair are 1 in 1225.

Once you hit quads, the odds that you will hit them again on the very next hand with the same pocket pair are 1 in 270,725.

haha what's that supposed to mean? I didn't say it was rigged I just think it's amazing

Now AT, he didn't say that, he was just looking for odds.

Edit: oops, a little too slow.

50-50? Either it happens or it doesn't.

"Never tell me the odds"
Han Solo

Han Solo was a fish

the odds are actually about 1 in 3.5million to hit back to back quads of the same kind(i.e: quad 4's back 2 back)

show your work. I get a number very close to Kurt's:

say we just had quads.

chance that the next card we're dealt is one of those 4 is 1 in 13

next card also? 1 in 17 1/3

kurt says pp is 1 in 1225 to become quads, and I believe him.

13 * 17 1/3 * 1225 = 276,033 1/3




odds that the next two hands I'm dealt are quads, and match:

17 1/3 * 1225 (odds the first hand is pp that becomes quads)
*
13 * 17 1/3 * 1225 (chance of the repeat)

= 5,861,107,777.7


the odds that you are eventually dealt two back-to-back sets of quads of the same rank depend on how many hands you play. The odds that someone you know will be dealt this combo depend on how many friends you have, and how many hands they play, and whether they'd tell you about it.


OR: it's a wrinkle in the matrix; your friend will die.

OR: god kept dealing him that hand until he learned to play it right.

that was perhaps hasty:

50*49*48*47*46 possible boards

of those, there are 20 types of boards that give us quads:
ABxxx BAxxx
AxBxx BxAxx
AxxBx you get the picture
AxxxB
xABxx
xAxBx
xAxxB
xxABx
xxAxB
xxxAB


for each of those, there are 48*47*46 ways to lay out the irrelevant cards.

so 20*48*47*46 / (50*49*48*47*46)

= 20 / (50*49)

= 1 / 122.5

I checked this via another method, and got the same answer.

one site gives the odds of FLOPPING quads at 1:407

so just divide all our math by 10.

This seems most likely, it was his first day playing.

What gedanken says is correct, there are 5 places for the first card, and 4 for the next.
5*4 = 20
20, three irrelevant cards (take 3 out of the remaining 52-2-2) = 48*47*46.
Positive results = 20*48*47*46
Possible results = 50*49*48*47*46
Positive results / Possible results = odds
20/(50*49) = 1/122,5
The chance of getting a specific hand (regardless of suits)
is 1/13*1/17 = 1/221
So, if you just caught quads with 4rs, the chance of picking up two 4rs again AND getting quads when the whole board is out is 1/122,5*1/221 = 1/27072.5

LOL -- I think if the Force is with you, it doesn't matter.