Quote:
kurt says pp is 1 in 1225 to become quads, and I believe him.
that was perhaps hasty:
50*49*48*47*46 possible boards
of those, there are 20 types of boards that give us quads:
ABxxx BAxxx
AxBxx BxAxx
AxxBx you get the picture
AxxxB
xABxx
xAxBx
xAxxB
xxABx
xxAxB
xxxAB
for each of those, there are 48*47*46 ways to lay out the irrelevant cards.
so 20*48*47*46 / (50*49*48*47*46)
= 20 / (50*49)
= 1 / 122.5
I checked this via another method, and got the same answer.
one site gives the odds of FLOPPING quads at 1:407
so just divide all our math by 10.