flopped pair vs Aces. PLO pot odds question.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 527
If you know your opponent has AA and you flop a pair vs them in a heads up pot in plo, Is it almost always correct to call a pot sized bet?
If the pot size bet gets you all in and you're guaranteed to realize your equity @ 11 outs twice (35%) (higher if you have more than just 2 pair outs), then we know it's correct to call. Pot size bet = 2-1 odds which means you need to win 33% of the time.
But, what if you are deeper and the pot size bet doesn't put you all in. Is it still generally correct to call a pot size bet with just your 11 outs?
Let's say you do and brick the turn. Picking up no new draws. Fold to all river bets unless you are getting 4-1?
-thanks
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 17,929
I don't think it's that helpful to think in terms of 11 outs here and there's a huge difference between "flopping a pair vs AA" and "flopping a pair vs AA".
Just check an equity calculator for the strictly theoretical case where nobody even has a likely backdoor draw. There's a difference between him having AA and we pair a king or a deuce.
Generally speaking, if we start folding 40%+ equity on the flop (which we often have with a pair against an overpaid) we're in trouble.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 11,125
I'm missing something above .. but ..
In general, yes, and 'certainly' on all dry Boards .. 'any' backdoor draws tilt towards calling even more, even run-run flush can add a sniff of equity.
When playing deep you probably want some other 'one card' improvement and/or the fold equity you can create with your own pot or re-pot depending on how sticky your opponent is with AAxx and how they may have also connected with a non-Ace Board.
You want a Flop read for sure, but I agree that it's not too wise to go looking for two pair/better when you assume you are up against AAxx and fold out a bunch of the 1 pair stuff.
I Flopped three pair against the same guy one session and got beat both times by running 2s and 3s after he piled in 6-10x pot OTF and wanted to tell me how bad I played each hand. Run those numbers .. Flop 3pr and gutter v AAxx
Yes, wine and cheese party, but it's more of the mental aspect of your over playing style .. and a nice healthy bankroll as well. GL