Hey guys,

A bit of context, I am a new player (thats why Im here), I had played before casually, but started to get serious 4 months ago. After two months I had 90k hands in NL2 with a 8BB/100 winrate (not counting rakeback). I had enough bankroll to jump to NL5 and so I did. Start was rough, I had to go back to NL2 in the first week but recovered the bankroll and went back to NL5 soon, but winrate dropped to 1.55BB/100 after 75k hands. Things were not smooth at all and I could not figure out how could a simple stake jump cause so much trouble. Then it hit.

A week ago, I had a hard hand when I lost full house over full house, and even though I did not feel tilted at all, after that I have lost 23 buyins in 5 days with a winrate of -30.93BB/100 (-22.74BB/100 all in adj). Every hand feels like I dont hit anything, when I do, they fold, when they dont, I get a big cooler, whenever I call with a marginal hand, they have better, etc. Im sure you all know what I mean.

Its strange to me that overnight I just forgot to play, especially, when I put the time and effort with videos, books, solver and so, which, although I dont think it entitles me to instantly win BBs, I believe it gives me an edge over many players in a stake like this, so I want to think its a downswing, but Im not really sure about it.

I would like to know how to analyze my hands to know if something changed at that point to make me lose so much, because its already been almost 9k hands and it doesnt stop, so it might not be just bad luck, and if so, how to fix it and learn from it. By now, I ran the leak tracker and everything seems normal, and Bell curve is normal, just a bit unlucky in the flushes, but nothing that can cause a 20+BB edge, imho.

Any other idea of what can I do here?

EXTRA QUESTION: Is there any way to search posts in the forum? I wanted to search some comments about downswings, but I cant find a search bar anywhere.

Thanks and very much appreciated =)

You have learned a playstyle that is designed to work well against the 2NL pool. Designed to exploit this pool. But those exploits may backfire when you move up stakes. Take a break from playing and reassess your strategy.

If you want to dive deeper, post your result charts by stake with red/blue lines, and post your positional stats. Use the wisdom of the crowd to analyze your database. Vague descriptions of runbad is not enough information.

There's a search dropdown at the top/centre of the website. But it doesn't work well on mobile.

I'm not super knowledgeable at poker yet but as a table games dealer...people frequently underestimate what the "long run" is. 5 days is nothing.

If you want to hear some other stories where the mathematical edge is less likely to be affected by opponents, read up on blackjack card counter variance. Those guys can sometimes go a month or more and still be down.

And video poker players can go a year or more.

I see, but how can that suddenly backfire overnight with a 20+BB/100 drop in the winrate after more than 70k hands?

About posting the results, is this the right subforum?

Thanks a lot for your tips, man.

I will take this into account, even tho its 5 days, those are almost 10k hands, maybe one whole month of live play, so it looked big to me.

23 buyins seem excessive at NL5. I mean, the lowest I've played is NL10 and I think the largest downswing I had there was 8 buyins. Maybe you're sitting with nits? Or iso-raising, c-betting, etc. in too many marginal/mw spots? Do you play fast tables or regular? How's your table selection? Are you playing too many tables? It's hard to know without seeing any stats or hands to know your thought process. I will say though that you seem to have a great attitude and are asking some good questions.

The thing is I have not changed anything from that point on. Im not a Degreanu about table selection but I always try to sit in tables where there are at least one rec and I have position on them or where there are no more than two regs I know. I play 6 5max tables at once and I feel comfortable (I played with 10 but I find the lack of monitor real space a problem so I play only 6).

From your comments, I feel like I should post stats, but I dont know if I should create a new post or edit thisone.

Thanks =)

10k hands really is not that big. I'm not saying it's 100% bad luck, but there's still a lot of variance in a sample that small.

It's not clear to me if you're combining your winrate in bb/100 between 2NL and 5NL. Those are different pools with different winrates.

Post some hard numbers either in this thread or here .

I'm surprised the online guys haven't chimed in, but I don't think 8bb/100 is that special to be moving up in stakes. As one post indicated, there are things you 'get away with' at one stake that will eat you alive at a higher one. This is true both live an online.

Did you drop back down for the downswing or did you stay at 5NL? Are you playing against Regs that have figured out your game? How many tables at one time? Did that go up when chasing? How long are your sessions?

There are so many little things that can add up and tilt your EV smaller in spots. You were winning 'lots' with Q-high flushes, so let's try J-high flushes! Are you suddenly overplaying your strong hands so you win before (and in fear of) Showdown, missing tons of value you were getting in your winning hands?

It can be very hard and sobering to critique your own play. Are you just playing or do you allocate 'study' time as well? Lots to consider, there is help here .. post, be receptive and be patient. GL

Why are you worrying? You're playing for small money
Keep learning and don't worry about it. Maybe you suck? That's ok, eventually you will be better
I'm a long time mtt player and obv cashgames are different but you won 72 buyins at 2NL and now you lost 23 buyins at 5NL . Obv the limit will be a bit tougher but this can easily just be variance. It's normal to question everything when you're losing but the reality is you probably weren't as good as your upswing told you and you're not as bad as this downswing tells you either... you're somewhere in the middle but again what does it matter when you're playing low stakes you're winning or losing money you can easily replace with a minimum wage job so keep studying and improving, that's all you have to do

Thanks again for your answers, Ill try to answer your replies.

No. I am not mixing stakes winrates.

@answer20
In order to jump to NL5 I did not do it just because 8BB/100. I found this criteria and thoguht it would be wise to follow it, how do you suggest me to decide when is it ok to go to the next one?

Im not sure if your questions are rethorical and just try to imply that, as you explained, there are a lot of factors involved, but in any case:

• I did not drop in this downswing (I did in the mentioned first one).

• It might be, but I really doubt it. Firstly because I always try to avoid playing in tables with people I mark as regulars (more than 500 hands together with reg numbers), but also because I wouldnt say NL5 players like me (I study their statistics and their winrates are usually similar) can exploit other regulars at that rate.

• I play 6 tables at the same time with sessions of 6ish hours, but I feel really comfortable with that, some times I tried 8 hours but I felt I started to make unusual mistakes.

• I also allocate some time to study, something like 10-20% of my time for poker (not taking youtube recreational videos as poker time). Usually I work with flopzilla and GTO+ (I know some people say its not good to use a solver in micros but others believe its great to understand GTO lines from the start and deviate from that. I dont know what is actually right so I went with this). I also read books and follow courses.

@Frogman3
Its not that I worry about the money. Obviously that is not a problem, what I worry about is a drop in my performance and I would like to know how to spot possible leaks and changes that could be the reason behind it. If its a variance downswing, I would also love to know how to spot that, since, as I said, its my first important downswing, and I actually dont know what I have to do. I could have ignored it and keep playing and be making a horrible mistake, or viceversa.

Here are some stats that could help us work through this:
Stats by position #1:

Stats by position #2:


Leak tracker report #1:

Leak tracker report #2:


Full graph with blue and red line:


Also, as an extra question, can someone help me understand this graph?

Its values dont match anything (without rake, without blinds or so).

If you need more stats or custom reports, I will be more than happy to provide them. I cant just thank enough for the work and effort you guys put in helping us when we are starting =)

Is there any way to avoid spoilers taking the same size of the images and expand as you open it?

Last graph is of button winnings? - pretty simple

I don't know much about hud stats tbh but from the graph it seems obvious that you need to win more w/o showdown. Increase aggressiveness/ bluff more etc or if you feel that everyone is too stationy then value bet thinner and bigger to increase your blue line
From the leak finder looks like you are not folding enough on flops and turns but then folding too much on rivers . That's the worst possible scenario . Call flop call turn , fold river and lose the most without even getting to sd. That's prob what's ruining your redline - Stop doing that I guess.

I would imagine 5NL is the lowest where ppl actually grind to eke out some sort of income so maybe its quite a bit tougher than the 2nl games you are used to
I think it is a mix of variance and you needing to adapt as I said above