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11-27-2010 , 06:40 AM
I put this here, because it's probably quite a dumb question, but I've had a few so I feel like asking!

Lately I've been wondering if I'm extracting enough value from my sets in particular. So, after a couple of stiff whiskies, I delved into PT3, filtered for 3 of a kind on the flop and excluded trips, which should give me sets only.

My winrate equates to about 18bb per hand, which seems quite low. Assuming I open or call 4bb pre, I only seem to be getting ~4.5:1 per flopped set. This is over ~66,000 hands.

Maybe it's variance, but I worry that I'm not extracting value enough. My basic strategy with flopped sets is to play them fast on wet boards (two tone, coordinated), and ease up a bit when the board's dry. I thought this was a pretty ABC approach. There's no doubt there's a few hands in there when I was worse and paid off obvious straights/flushes/etc, but a 4.5:1 return still seems rather small.

What are other people's thoughts? What's your winrate with flopped sets?
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11-27-2010 , 11:53 AM
I recently looked into this same thing in my db and found I was making ~22bb per flopped set which I think is quite reasonable.

Gotta figure that number takes into account when you lose set-under-set, when you wind up losing to a flush or a straight, and when you have to bail due to aggressive opponents on dangerous boards.

Also, my philosophy on sets is pretty much the same as yours -- bet out on wet boards but check around on less dangerous boards because so many people will give you two streets of value with TP and 2nd pair whereas they might call one street with TP and none with 2nd pair if you lead.

Last edited by quux; 11-27-2010 at 11:57 AM. Reason: added set playing philosophy
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