Hi guys,

I've been playing 25nl on Ignition, and had previously been doing well (winning about 15BB/100). While I'm somewhat new to these calculations, over the last five days I've had a big downswing that has left me wondering how often this happens to anyone else? Normally, I can take downswings pretty well, but this one has been crazy (especially given the difference in my BB/100 and All-In Adj BB/100).

I've attached a link to my PT4 results below:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zqg...ew?usp=sharing

I realize it's over a reasonably small sample (just under 5,000 hands), but during this stretch I've lost -15.27 BB/100 (-$186.02) while my All-In Adj BB/100 is 9.76 ($118.85).

That's an overall difference of 25.03 BB/100 ($304.87). In other words, it seems like my downswing (from expected winnings) is around -1,219 BB over this stretch.

I totally get variance, but this seems to be at the further end of the wrong side of variance (to a somewhat extreme level).

Can someone please let me know if I just don't understand this stuff very well or if it's totally within the normal variance levels that I should expect (and most have gone through)?

Thank you guys so much!

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Play around with this, you'll be surprised how much variance there is in poker. You have a 5k hand sample, you need to play more before you can make any assumptions about how you're doing. That is some runbad for sure though, hope it turns around for you.

Thank you so much invalidname94,

Very much appreciate your feedback and that website is awesome - been really helpful to play around with it and just get a much better perspective on variance in a number of situations.

Thank you again!

It's a bottom ~5%-8% type run depending on your variance. Pretty bad, but not unheard of.

Keep putting in that volume.

Glad I could help, welcome to 2+2