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Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Critique my stats and theoretical game plz

07-29-2010 , 01:13 AM
some background to me and my game... ima micro nl player, 2/5nl... currently at 2nl and gona jump back into 5nl next week... i play short handed and full ring but for this thread i want feedback on my full ring micro 24tabling game... im putting in 6-9k hands a day now and winning about 4-6bb/100 at 2nl, i would love to increase this and to keep it up for 5nl as well which is why i made this thread

stats:
2000 hands played and saw flop:
- 20 times out of 255 while in small blind (8%)
- 116 times out of 257 while in big blind (45%)
- 71 times out of 1488 in other positions (5%)
- a total of 207 times out of 2000 (10%)

Pots won at showdown - 33 out of 49 (67%)
Pots won without showdown - 79

^^^ i bounce around about 65-70% pots won at showdown and 10-15% hands played and saw flop( it depends on the cards i get in my session)

theory(metagame):

-in general my full ring 24tabling game is a tag approach but i do switch to being passive vs fishy short stackers or fishy single tablers who try to play every pot, i play the multi tablers who are regs more aggressive post flop especially in position and i make my decisions not off of hud stats cause i dont use one but off of there table image and # of tables playing in cohesion with their stack size... hence im not always raising fish who called before me with aq aj etc because im missing the flop alot of the time and they dont fold if they made any pair and cbetting is just spewing $ vs these guys... im only raising with pocket pairs if the guys to act after me have large stack sizes and know how to fold if they miss, folding aq,kq,kj,j10 etc unless im in position and my bet sizing is 50-70% of the pot when im betting for value in general




so yeah basically i was hoping you guys would be able to get an idea on how i play from this thread alone and critique & give feedback on my thinking and stats etc... tryna increase my winrate and crush these limits so any advice would be helpful, thanks in advance
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 02:04 AM
The stats you post aren't really helpful in evaluating your play. You got Stars to email you your statistics for your last 2,000 hands, right? Nowhere does it show how often you raise, or whether or not you're playing the majority of your pots in position. Also, your W$SD rate is freakishly high, so that's positive variance over a small sample. Do you use PT3 or HEM? If not, it is absolutely essential that you purchase one of them if you want to take cash games seriously.

As for playing different styles against different types of players..... there's really no good reason to be limping behind fishy players with hands like AQ or KQ or even KT. You're just being a fish right along with them, and you're missing out on a lot of value. You want them to limp-call with trash when you have AQ; you're profiting every time you do it, even if you don't end up winning that particular hand. These are the players you're going to take to Valuetown when you have AQ and they have Q9 and a Q flops, but Valuetown is a lot smaller in a limped pot.
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 02:18 AM
^^ i understand but i mean i do raise with aq kq etc vs fish but only when im gona be heads up, when im at 5nl ill do this mroe but at 2nl i find it hard to do since theres always 3-5fish limping and who will call the raise and then i cant cbet and i miss most flops so at 24tables i find it was bringing down my winrate massively doing this, especially when i cbet i was breakeven/losing slightlly which is why i decided to play it passively in these spots..

btw my w$sd at 65-70% at 2nl is high?, i play a very tight game is why its so high, i guess i should loosen up, im sure im too tight which is why my winrate so low but i would love to know in what spots to loosen up
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 03:04 AM
W$SD should be in the 50s for a good player. It may seem that the higher this stat is, the better, but that is not the case. It means that you either play your good hands so hard that you lose everyone before showdown, or you rarely bluff and thus never get to showdown with a worse hand, or you give up your medium made hands too easily and only continue with the very top of your range.
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 03:22 AM
^^ spot on with that analysis... but vs fish when i miss the flop im not tryna build any type of a pot so i end up folding or not cbetting out worst hands and try to just value bet them when i make a hand and call with aq etc when i see them calling behind me in numbers... so should i be betting even when 3-4 people called behind me and i have aq?? and if so how much??... if i miss i just give up right?... that should increase my winrate??...
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 03:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zaiga000
W$SD should be in the 50s for a good player. It may seem that the higher this stat is, the better, but that is not the case. It means that you either play your good hands so hard that you lose everyone before showdown, or you rarely bluff and thus never get to showdown with a worse hand, or you give up your medium made hands too easily and only continue with the very top of your range.
Hmm,
Any book chapters/articles written on this? Still seems to me like the higher W$SD is the better. Sometimes you will still lose showdown of course but 40%+ of the time?

* If your bluffs are getting shown down too much you are making bad bluffs
* Playing good hands too hard should actually lower W$SD since good hands usually win
* Sometimes you will lose for good reasons but I feel that showing down losing hands usually indicates weak-tight or loose-passive play.

If you've got the losing hand, either you should fold or you should bluff your opponent into folding. Obviously some of the time you can't be sure if you have the winning or losing hand and sometimes you will lose the showdown here, but isn't part of playing better reducing the amount of times you go to showdown not knowing where you stand?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
theres always 3-5fish limping and who will call the raise and then i cant cbet
You'll hit the flop 1/3 of the time and playing AQ or AK you'll usually have TPTK when that happens. If you got one caller you need to win some pots with cbets because you're getting effectively 1:1 on your preflop bet but only hitting your hand 1/3 of the time, so you need cbets to make up the difference. If you have 5 callers then you're getting 5:1 on your preflop bet so your 1/3 chance of hitting the flop has given you the odds you need already, so cbetting isn't necessary. Instead valuebet when you hit and especially when you get 2pair/trips. Sometimes you'll lose to like J4 that hit two pair, but you'll also get a lot of value from people that played A9 or QK or whatever. Playing multiway pots in weak games means lots of variance but that doesn't mean that AQ is a bad hand when you hit the flop.

Last edited by fluffysheap; 07-29-2010 at 03:37 AM. Reason: Add more stuff
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 04:16 AM
that is where math is idiotic to me, cause im never hitting the flop 1/3 of the time and i play large volume so its not sample size thats the problem.. iono maybe i am but my brain is telling me different, but i was losing lots of value from raising aq kq ak with 3-5 callers infront who will always call my raise cause they are loose donks or sometimes shove on me... its the donks who are making me lose value and letting my winrate go down, atleast in these spots where i have hands in the middle of my range

can someone do the math for me for a person at 2nl who is calling with aq,kq etc and getting value from betting all 3 streets vs a guy who is raising and getting 3-5 donk callers and having to check fold 70% of the time?.. cause im really thinking this is the primary reason for my low winrate
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 04:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fluffysheap
Hmm,
Any book chapters/articles written on this? Still seems to me like the higher W$SD is the better. Sometimes you will still lose showdown of course but 40%+ of the time?

* If your bluffs are getting shown down too much you are making bad bluffs
* Playing good hands too hard should actually lower W$SD since good hands usually win
* Sometimes you will lose for good reasons but I feel that showing down losing hands usually indicates weak-tight or loose-passive play.
Your second point is correct. I'd rather say that a high W$SD is an indication you are not value betting the river thin enough.
As for the 3rd point: say you are on the river with a medium made hand (KJ on a KT726r board).
Action was: preflop, you raie, BB call. Flop check/bet/call. Turn check/check.
Villain bets 1/2 pot on the river. You are getting 3 to 1 on your call. You are 60% certain he has you beat (assume you could make this assessment). Do you call? You should.

To OP: if you want to post meaningful stats, you are going to need to get and use PT3 or HEM. Granted it's a big chunk out of your roll when you are playing the nano-stakes, but you should have a look at getting one of thes as soon as you can afford it.
I'd buy the micro-version once your bnkroll is above $250 or so.

Last edited by fabadam; 07-29-2010 at 04:25 AM. Reason: Noticed later this was not OP speaking ...
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 04:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
that is where math is idiotic to me, cause im never hitting the flop 1/3 of the time and i play large volume so its not sample size thats the problem.. iono maybe i am but my brain is telling me different, but i was losing lots of value from raising aq kq ak with 3-5 callers infront who will always call my raise cause they are loose donks or sometimes shove on me... its the donks who are making me lose value and letting my winrate go down, atleast in these spots where i have hands in the middle of my range

can someone do the math for me for a person at 2nl who is calling with aq,kq etc and getting value from betting all 3 streets vs a guy who is raising and getting 3-5 donk callers and having to check fold 70% of the time?.. cause im really thinking this is the primary reason for my low winrate
When you have AKo, you basically have 6 cards out of 50 in the deck that you hit (plus a few percent for hitting QJT, or monotone flush draw flops).
The chance that you miss on the flop is therefore:
(44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48) = 67.57%.
So you hit one pair or better more than 32.5% of the time. If you think you are hitting less, it just shows that our brains are not very good at estimating and observing statistics.

Your second question is too broad. Why are you calling with AQ when this results in seeing 3-5 people to a flop. I'd rather 3-bet to isolate. Or fold even.
However, check-folding 2/3 of the time can still be profitable, as long as thw pots you win in the remaining 1/3 of the time are big enough.

Why your winrate is not higher (be happy it is positive), we cannot judge from these stats or just general feelings. That's what HEM / PT3 are for. My guess is that you are playing very tight and a bit too passive, because that's what most beginning players who have understood the tight part do.
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fabadam
Your second point is correct. I'd rather say that a high W$SD is an indication you are not value betting the river thin enough.

.
To add to this you are likely folding the best hand too often as well
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fabadam
I'd rather say that a high W$SD is an indication you are not value betting the river thin enough.
You are correct, this is probably the main reason for too high a W$SD.

Also note that if you bluff on the river with a potsized bet, it only needs to work 51% of the time to show a profit. I'm not saying you should go crazy bluffing, especially on the microstakes, but it is definitely worth thinking about. If people catch you bluffing one time, they will be more inclined to start calling you down lighter in the future, which means you can valuebet lighter.

All that aside, main point is that you start valuebetting more often.
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-29-2010 , 05:21 AM
and i get the whole iso raise part, but the point is im at 2nl there is no such thing, when they decide to play 8-4 off suit they will call a 4xbb+3-5 raise and since im missing 60+% of the time im spewing doing this unless im stacking alot omes with 1pair in these spots granted they dont suckout on me often.... this concept alone is just what bothers me... 2morrow i will try doing it though and see if it helps my winrate at all
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-30-2010 , 12:44 AM
i just tried raising with my medium hands in middle/latep ositions and although i won sometimes the times i was ahead people kept sucking out on me and i was break even after my 4k hands today so far ehh, and this is after being trippled up 3x and stacking a few people, i kept losing too many pots tryna win big pots off of fish with 1pair and iono its not profitable for me right now ill try and work it in some future time but i think ima just be extra nitty it was somewhat working for me b4 so ill be happy with my 5bb/100 winrate for now
Critique my stats and theoretical game plz Quote
07-30-2010 , 02:36 AM
Yo this is a bit unrelated but you should try to clean all your posts up in terms of grammar and spelling, I've seen you post here for quite a while and you only use commas and ellipses (...) so it always seems like one giant run on sentence and I'm sure I'm not the only one who's annoyed by this.

Oh and out of 900 or so posts I've never even seen you post a legit hand on here. I think that would help your game a lot more rather than these stats. Just go into your poker stars folder and there you will find the hand histories. Then go to deucescracked and covert the ones that gave you the most trouble.

Last edited by DaLimit; 07-30-2010 at 02:46 AM.
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07-30-2010 , 06:50 PM
My advice to OP:

1. Stop playing 24 tables. Cut that down to 2-4. Your goal should be trying to learn the game. You don't have enough time to pay attention to each individual table and figure things out when you're playing that many tables.

2. Get the small stakes version of Holdem Manager. The human memory is a tricky thing; and it has a tendency to over remember certain aspects of the game while completely forgetting other aspects. (You know those guys who shove every time the get AA or KK because they don't want to get sucked out on? They do this because they only remember the big pots they lost when someone sucked out: they don't remember all the middling pots they win. And they don't remember them because it is what they expected to happen.) You can get HEM here: http://www.holdemmanager.com/


--klez
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