Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
that is where math is idiotic to me, cause im never hitting the flop 1/3 of the time and i play large volume so its not sample size thats the problem.. iono maybe i am but my brain is telling me different, but i was losing lots of value from raising aq kq ak with 3-5 callers infront who will always call my raise cause they are loose donks or sometimes shove on me... its the donks who are making me lose value and letting my winrate go down, atleast in these spots where i have hands in the middle of my range
can someone do the math for me for a person at 2nl who is calling with aq,kq etc and getting value from betting all 3 streets vs a guy who is raising and getting 3-5 donk callers and having to check fold 70% of the time?.. cause im really thinking this is the primary reason for my low winrate
When you have AKo, you basically have 6 cards out of 50 in the deck that you hit (plus a few percent for hitting QJT, or monotone flush draw flops).
The chance that you miss on the flop is therefore:
(44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48) = 67.57%.
So you hit one pair or better more than 32.5% of the time. If you think you are hitting less, it just shows that our brains are not very good at estimating and observing statistics.
Your second question is too broad. Why are you calling with AQ when this results in seeing 3-5 people to a flop. I'd rather 3-bet to isolate. Or fold even.
However, check-folding 2/3 of the time can still be profitable, as long as thw pots you win in the remaining 1/3 of the time are big enough.
Why your winrate is not higher (be happy it is positive), we cannot judge from these stats or just general feelings. That's what HEM / PT3 are for. My guess is that you are playing very tight and a bit too passive, because that's what most beginning players who have understood the tight part do.