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Constantly losing flopped set over set Constantly losing flopped set over set

02-04-2021 , 02:15 PM
One recurrent problem for me recently seems to be having a pocket pair (sixes for example) and then flopping a set (on 269 for example) and then my opponent having 99 for a higher trips (think McKeehen vs Schwartz). On the flop I check or call depending on position and then try and get max value over the course of the hand. Obviously if it comes up with huge flush/straight possibilities I'll take that into consideration and maybe fold, but so often it's a monotonous board and simply a case of set-over-set.

How do I get away from these situations?
Constantly losing flopped set over set Quote
02-04-2021 , 03:00 PM
You don't, you're supposed to go broke in these spots.
That's why you have bankroll management.
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02-04-2021 , 07:42 PM
Don’t feel bad. Just played a hand where I had KK and the flop was K44. They had 44. Crap happens in poker. Just move on and you’ll be better for it.
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02-04-2021 , 10:15 PM
Yep, just a cooler. It’ll even out; eventually you’ll go on a run where it seems that you’re the one with the higher set all the time in these spots.
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02-04-2021 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
You don't, you're supposed to go broke in these spots.
That's why you have bankroll management.
Exactly
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02-05-2021 , 01:21 AM
Flopped mid set should go broke against flopped top set in most situations. You don't try to get away from it, you try to get money in the middle with mid set.

Preflop, try not to get to get too married to baby pockets, especially against raises, 3 bets and OOP; also especially if very deep.
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02-05-2021 , 11:11 AM
When frustrated with poker you should always try to look at the math to get some perspective on the spot. But the numbers themselves also have 'numbers' (conditions) attached to them.

You should see a pocket pair every 16 hands or so.
You should hit a set about every 9 Flops with a pp .. so about 11 out of every 100
Your opponent will 'also' hit a set at the same time at least once of those 11.

So roughly 1 of every 11 of your sets will result in a cooler for somebody. The issue is that those numbers require all pp to see 'every' potential Flop, which just isn't going to happen.

You may also consider that Players might tend to set mine with 55 to 99 more often? Maybe?

What the posts are trying to tell you is that set/set should be treated no different than AA v KK, if not more aggressively. You have a strong hand, play it.

I had a live session where I got AA eleven times in 4 hours. Did I go home assuming that I wouldn't get AA again for a month? Nope, come back the next day and 'play poker' again.

Tough run of 'results', not cards. You got good cards that ran bad .. keep playing them. GL
Constantly losing flopped set over set Quote
02-05-2021 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
You don't, you're supposed to go broke in these spots.
That's why you have bankroll management.
This.

If you flop a set and lose, and you don't lose a lot of money, you played it wrong.

Also, playing it cautiously to avoid this loses you money in the long run.
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02-05-2021 , 12:21 PM
I don't think it's as easy as people try to make it.

First of all: Yes, you obviously go broke for 100BB with 66 on 962. But if we're talking set over set in general, things aren't that straightforward.

Let's just take the 962r example but now hero has 22 and called from the BB after MP opened and CO called. Flop goes check/bet/call/call and we see a 4 turn. We check, MP bets and CO raises. Now we look at CO stats and determine that it's very likely he would have 3bet JJ+ preflop. Next thing, we have him marked as a "standard TAG reg" and our population read for that limit is that the turn raising range for said player type is unbalanced towards value. All of a sudden, we're not that excited about our set anymore.

I've been asked the set over set question countless times with people claiming they're unlucky. The first example they list is always something similar to the one in OP where stacking off is clearly the correct play. There's no denying some people just run bad and haven't gotten their fair share of coolers.
But way more often than that, a big part of the problem is their handling of 55-22 both preflop and postflop. Especially from EP in full ring games and from the blinds, there's no shame in folding those hands if you have trouble playing them post flop. The "but the odds were good" argument is only valid if you're able to get paid when you hit. That's often difficult when you're sitting OOP.

Also, most of the standard advice for playing smallish pairs only applies to effective stacks between 50-150ish BB. Smaller than that, you're often not getting the right odds in the first place preflop. Bigger than that, reverse implied odds increase drastically.
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02-06-2021 , 08:53 PM
Constantly losing flopped set over set does not happen frequently.

Selective memory when this happens.
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02-07-2021 , 06:20 AM
Agreed with most people here. Your going to go broke most of the time I. These spots, that's just variance.

Just consider: if villain is betting very large on relatively dry boards then a higher set is a possibility. Especially if your lower set blocks some possible 2 pair combos.
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02-08-2021 , 02:31 PM
Home Game ... One of those hands that would've ruined me long ago (still might)

1) Still stacking chips from a double the hand before, get 77 in HJ .. flat an open from MP for 12, then flat a 'limp-min click' from UTG to 30 .. we are very deep, probably $1200 effective for a 1/3 NL game

2) Flop K74

3) UTG tank slides out $80 .. MP tank raises to $210 .. 'easy' tank fold

4) They GII and run it twice, AQ loses both Boards to KK

Now we could break down Player types, history and long term range EV, but I just know that I'm either 70% to win or 5% to win here based on my profile of MP 'never' raising into this Board without a 'made' hand. Of which, IMO, there are 'two' .. AAx or a set of Kings. I'm ruling out AA since he had a chance to 4-bet PF (with two Players behind) and didn't. We certainly could crunch this, and I already know this is a 'bad' fold without some really tight reads/profiles of the opponents.

Yes, you are supposed to just 'play cards' and lose a lot with a set, but there are some spots where you need to 'play poker' and trust your reads and your own mental state. To me, just not worth the mental strain of losing all the chips I just won, and more, one hand after I got them! Add that to my read of the spot .. fold and move on.

Now I probably play too much PLO and that influences my NL game 'too much' in spots like these, but I've found that I've become much more accepting of my 'hero fold' decisions based on my PLO experiences .. right or wrong, 70% to 5% is a huge EV swing with my reads leaning towards 5% 'a lot' more often.

If you're 10-20 tabling online this may (needs to) just slide through as a cooler .. next hand. But my brain wont let me 'auto' much of anything when playing live .. sorry purists. GL

PS .. Don't be tossing the 44 my way as this Player is 'never' raising with 44 here until the Turn is not a flush card, then they get aggressive.
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02-08-2021 , 04:26 PM
Happens...just be grateful you weren't playing higher stakes. In the long run these coolers should even out. Over my 6,000+ hour live sample it (probably) has, and that's after losing set over set at 5/T in 4! pots twice in one session.
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02-18-2021 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
I already know this is a 'bad' fold
It's not bad, it's appalling.
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02-24-2021 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil3ntness
Constantly losing flopped set over set does not happen frequently.

Selective memory when this happens.
You always remember how the "bad beats" feel, and rarely remember the feelings of when you win.

Just like...

You often tell far more people when things don't go your way, then the amount you tell when they do.

(Obviously you would remember when you win a million dollars, but you know exactly what I mean)

Perspective for Poker, & Perspective for Life
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