Home Game ... One of those hands that would've ruined me long ago (still might)
1) Still stacking chips from a double the hand before, get 77 in HJ .. flat an open from MP for 12, then flat a 'limp-min click' from UTG to 30 .. we are very deep, probably $1200 effective for a 1/3 NL game
2) Flop K
7
4
3) UTG tank slides out $80 .. MP tank raises to $210 .. 'easy' tank fold
4) They GII and run it twice, AQ
loses both Boards to K
K
Now we could break down Player types, history and long term range EV, but I just know that I'm either 70% to win or 5% to win here based on my profile of MP 'never' raising into this Board without a 'made' hand. Of which, IMO, there are 'two' .. A
Ax or a set of Kings. I'm ruling out AA since he had a chance to 4-bet PF (with two Players behind) and didn't. We certainly could crunch this, and I already know this is a 'bad' fold without some really tight reads/profiles of the opponents.
Yes, you are supposed to just 'play cards' and lose a lot with a set, but there are some spots where you need to 'play poker' and trust your reads and your own mental state. To me, just not worth the mental strain of losing all the chips I just won, and more, one hand after I got them! Add that to my read of the spot .. fold and move on.
Now I probably play too much PLO and that influences my NL game 'too much' in spots like these, but I've found that I've become much more accepting of my 'hero fold' decisions based on my PLO experiences .. right or wrong, 70% to 5% is a huge EV swing with my reads leaning towards 5% 'a lot' more often.
If you're 10-20 tabling online this may (needs to) just slide through as a cooler .. next hand. But my brain wont let me 'auto' much of anything when playing live .. sorry purists. GL
PS .. Don't be tossing the 44 my way as this Player is 'never' raising with 44 here until the Turn is not a flush card, then they get aggressive.