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Originally Posted by tiktiktik
why is that even a legitimate way?
Isn't the likelihood that he gets dealt AK the same likelihood he gets dealt KQ in this situation?
The likelihood that he gets dealt, for example, AsKs is the same as the likelihood he gets dealt KsQs - as long as you haven't seen the As, Ks or Qs, that is. Every individual exact hand is equally likely. "AK" is several hands - any Ace and any King put together. 4 * 4 = 16 of them.
When we find out that certain exact hands are impossible - because we hold one of the cards involved, or it's on the board, or (this judgement is never exact) it's not in his range - every exact hand that we can't rule out is still equally likely. DUCY?
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how is the small difference able to influence the much more direct way of interpreting bet sizes, other tells etc.
It doesn't. We interpret stuff, and
then we decide whether calling, raising or folding will give us the best EV. Combinatorics is part of the math for the EV calculations.
We interpret the bet size, stats, tells, whatever... to figure out what kinds of hands he can have. Combinatorics lets us figure out a complete list of exact hands he can have, grouped into equivalent classes. That is, instead of listing every possible AK, we just say "AK (however many combos)". Then we can check our chances against each kind of hand, and use the combos to get a
weighted average that gives us our overall chance of winning (our "equity"). Finally we compare that to pot odds and implied odds