Say you're playing 100nl and you're objective is to win money. You're winrate over a good sample size is 4bb/h. You want to play 25 hours a week and 4 tables for 400/ week.

Now say within two hours you make $600 cause you get really really lucky. What's wrong with just quitting and starting up again next week?

If you've consistently made 4bb an hour over a large sample size, you'd expect to still only make that much despite you're enormous hot streak. Why not just stop playing and take $600? You're skill would bring u back down to 400 by the end of the week most likely while stopping would keep you at 600

That's not how it works.

Cards have no memory. Just cause you won $600 doesn't mean that if you keep playing you'll lose $200 the rest of the week. And next week there won't be some magic eraser wiping the slate clean.

It doesn't matter if you get dealt another hand now or next week.


And all you are doing is making sure you will play fewer hands and if you are a winning player fewer hands means less money.

/thread as usual

Lego is the man

someone always told me if youre scared to play cause you dont want to lose then youre not understanding poker enough. I always wanted to quit while i was ahead and enjoy the money but regardless if you quit now or later variance or bad beat will come when it comes.

Yea that makes sense thanks.

This./thread

IMO this isn’t true. Just because you play more hands doesn’t mean you’re gonna win more money. I’ve gone many days in a row not playing a ton but still making sure I booked wins rather then grinding lots of hands and won a ton more then I did just grinding a ton. I think booking wins is crucial for your mindset as well. Everyone runs differently too. If booking wins and leaving is working for you day after day and it’s helping you move up and make a lot of money the I wouldn’t change it.

I know plenty of players that have gone thru huge upswings not playing much compared to other grinders. Scott blumstein only played the main and won, I have another friend who only plays a few hours a day and crushes. IMO booking wins during bad stretches and playing more during upswings is optimal. Play a ton through bad runs and all you’re gonna do is lose insane amounts and stress the F out.

It's not simply a question of hands played. If you consistently hit and run as soon as you are up a bit, but put in long hours trying to get even when you are stuck, then you will end up minimizing the volume you put in when the game is good, and maximizing the volume you put in when the game is bad or you are playing bad.

This habit is not simply bad, it is fatal.

If hitting big hands then quitting to prevent your winnings from being eroded away through additional play is a key to your money making strategy, your approach is too variance dependent and is very unlikely to be a long term winning strategy.

Most people who talk about having a 4 bb/hour win rate are not basing that on losing 29 hands and winning 1 big one. If you are unable to consistently avoid bear traps and cannot protect your stack, if you don't know how to use your stack as leverage, if basically do not know how to play from ahead, you are unlikely to be a winning player.

It was as true 8 years ago when this thread was active as it is today.

If you have been running bad and it is causing you to tilt or otherwise play badly or if you are playing badly in any event or if the game is no longer a good one or if the game is still ok, but you expect there will be a much better game in 8 or w/e hours and you need to sleep or something, then by all means quit and book a win, or quit even if you are currently losing.

Or if you have been on a bad run and it would make you feel better psychologically to have a winning session, then book a win if you want.

But if you are trying to make income from poker and you have 25 hours per week to play and you happen to run real good over 5 hours on the first day of the week and are up 1,200 big blinds after that day, it doesn’t make sense to “book a win” and take the rest of the week off based on the reasoning that you already won more than your expected win amount for that week. If you are a winning player, then if you play more that week, your expectation is to win more; your expectation for the rest of the week is not to lose because you ran too good the first day. And if you take the rest of the week off and start playing again the next week, it doesn’t re-set the world so that your run good on the first day doesn’t count or whatever. Whenever you play the next hand is the next hand and it is still dealt randomly. It doesn’t matter if it is right now, tomorrow, next week or 8.5 years from now.


It is kinda impossible to know when you are in a “bad stretch” or an “upswing” at the time though. You can know that just recently you ran bad or were upswinging, but you can’t know whether that bad stretch or upswing is about to continue. But sure, if you know what is about to happen, then don’t play if you are going to run bad and play a lot so long as you will be running good.

*epic bump*

I'm always looking for a reason to leave a table regardless of profit/loss. if you need a week off then take it. if poker isn't your only income then book the win and relax for an extra week. but the thing you need to realize is poker is like one life long game. leaving a game to log a win should not be the main/only reason.

this is an epic bump.

what would be awesome though would be if Duke came back and answered his own question (hint - he will agree with lego). He went from from poker newb to stone cold killer poker full time pro in the live scene sporting a massive w/r over a very large sample. Sadly he does not post much any more

for players looking to step up their game dukes journey is chronicled in the PGC section

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...urney-1376971/

If you are winning, the table is probably good. Why leave a good thing? Keep playing until the fish leave or you feel tired. Your winrate is largely about how much more you make in good games than you lose in bad ones.

Don't suffer from winner's tilt. It has probably kept many slightly winning players from being solid winning players.

Of course just because you are winning doesn't mean you should stay at the table. If you sit down playing heads up against a 70% vpip whale, and then the whale quits after you stack him and two regs join the game, you have gone from playing a game where you have a big edge to a game where you have no edge. Maybe a negative edge, if they are colluding, after all, they think they have an edge since they are playing. Or even if you are break even before the rake, then you are still losing post rake. Time to quit.

Yes, an interesting bump ... HUGE difference between 'luck' and 'skill' when it comes to variance. Skill shouldn't bring you down, but variance can.

I wouldn't blame someone from a 'cash-n-dash' spot to protect a large stack, but to say 'I'm good' when the waiting period is over and the table conditions are 'green light' is a different conversation. GL