Hi, I just have a quick question I am hoping someone can confirm of deny.

To make betting more profitable than checking, we need a greater than 50% chance of winning the pot. And up to 60% including a combination of showdown and fold equity. (ignoring the possibility of getting raised)

Also, when deciding to call a pot sized bet from my opponent, I need a greater than 33% chance of winning. Correct?

Thank you

If this is on the river, and you are making a pot sized bet, then yes. If you are making a smaller bet, it needs to work less often (ie. a half pot sized bet needs to work only 33% of the time).

On earlier streets you need to factor in the possibility of either your hand improving on the next streets, or the chance of bluffing at it again.

Eh? I don't really understand this part. If you are semi-bluffing on the flop or the turn you have to factor in the chance that your hand improves to the best hand on the next street. Fold equity + outs may give you the right odds to make a certain bet, but the exact percentage depends on the number of outs your hand has, plus what implied odd you have.

On the river, yes.

I wouldn't really think of it like this. What if you hold quads? You have a near 100% chance of winning the pot but betting won't always be the most profitable play.

Sorry I made a mistake. "And up to 60% including a combination of showdown and fold equity." That should read, "And greater than 60%...."

My reasoning is this. You cannot use pot odds for betting because that is just the break even point for an action. But as long as we have some equity, checking always has value. It is our equity times the pot amount. So in order for us to bet, our EV should be greater than checking, correct? If so, according to my calculations, this happens when we have equity exceeding the 50-60% range.

For example

The pot is $100
we have 40% equity
If we check, our EV is $40.

If we bet half pot, the EV is $30. The only way to increase the EV above that of checking, is to have an equity of >50%

For example

The pot is $100
we have 60% equity
If we check, our EV is $60

If we bet half pot, our EV is $70.


vlee89, you bring up a good point. I am still thinking about this but I will get back to you.

He means strictly in the sense of betting being a more +EV option than checking...

and yes you need 50% or more equity for that to be the case.