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Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Attempted Bluff - Thoughts

04-06-2012 , 02:20 AM
    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12477562

    Villain had been at the table for only eight hands and limped 6 of them, maybe wrong person to try this on? Probably should have folded after his donk bet, he has probably hit his J or K but I couldn't resist. However are both the turn and river 'scary' cards to him?
    I could easily have an Ace here?

    Would you have folded if you were him?

    MP3: $9.86 (98.6 bb)
    CO: $12.61 (126.1 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $9.57 (95.7 bb)
    SB: $7.13 (71.3 bb)
    BB: $13.28 (132.8 bb)
    MP1: $4 (40 bb)
    MP2: $4 (40 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
    4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.90) J K 2 (3 players)
    SB bets $0.30, BB folds, Hero calls $0.30

    Turn: ($1.50) A (2 players)
    SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, SB calls $0.90

    River: ($3.90) 9 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10

    Spoiler:
    Results: $8.10 pot
    Final Board: J K 2 A 9
    Hero mucked T T and lost (-$3.90 net)
    SB mucked and lost (-$3.90 net)



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    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-06-2012 , 02:50 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Madsaac
    Villain had been at the table for only eight hands and limped 6 of them, maybe wrong person to try this on?
    yes. and wrong board too.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-06-2012 , 10:36 AM
    the board was awfull to play TT
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-06-2012 , 10:42 AM
    Floating and then betting the ace on the turn would be good against a thinking/observant player, but not this guy.
    When your raise gets called on the turn, I think you have to shut down. There are no river cards that will make villain suddenly hate his hand, so firing again is spew as you have no fold equity. I'm guessing he had KJ or 22 and his small bets were his idea of a trap.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-07-2012 , 02:23 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
    Floating and then betting the ace on the turn would be good against a thinking/observant player, but not this guy.
    When your raise gets called on the turn, I think you have to shut down. There are no river cards that will make villain suddenly hate his hand, so firing again is spew as you have no fold equity. I'm guessing he had KJ or 22 and his small bets were his idea of a trap.
    Thanks

    He had QJo.

    Just for practice I tried a EV calc for my turn bet, could someone check it please

    EV = (FE * pot) + (1 - FE) * ((EQ * (pot + villcall)) - (1 - EQ) * (shove))

    .5*150 + .5(.12*(240) - .88(90))=

    75 + .5(29-79)=

    75 + .5(-50)=

    75 + (-25) = +50

    Something doesn't seem quite right?

    My FE may be a little high?
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-07-2012 , 02:50 AM
    Nobody donks a KJx flop without a pair, and considering how you just passively call the flop no fish is going to put you on an ace. They arent going to put you on anything really, so you have to focus on his actions. He leads a pretty bad board considering you raised preflop, so he must have something. There are simply no bad turn cards for him, everything improves him to draws or 2pair+. If you feel the need to peel his donkbet because you think he could bluff after 8 hands then fine, call, but trying to bluff the turn AFTER he bets AGAIN is suicide.

    It might be tempting in situations where he checks the turn, but never on a board texture like this with so many highcards that hit him from every possible angle. I'd rather try this if the board ran out 25JA or something. And of course, after 2 donkbets AND calling a turn raise, shipping the river is just lighting money on fire. There is absolutely no expectation that he's ever folding when he's shown this much interest, especially since he might even have a halfway decent hand.

    For christs sake you have 8 hands of history on someone, quit the fancy crap.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-07-2012 , 04:42 AM
    Check/fold the turn.

    You can afford to be patient and get paid off with a good hand (1/2 your stack +). Every hand is not a battle for stacks where the guy is trying to screw you.

    You probably got antzy because you were bored, below 100BB, or whatever.

    If you want a reliable way to make money, be the big blind (or even the small blind if the big blind is weak) and 3 bet the guys that open from late position seemingly every time mercilessly (Ax, Kx, SCs). If they refuse to fold, 3 bet with stuff like KQ, AJ+, TT+ and let them play a 3 bet pot against you with their crap.

    You probably got antzy because you were bored, below 100BB, or whatever.

    Don't be afraid to lose your money, but don't flush it down the drain.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-07-2012 , 11:39 AM
    It's fine, just bet bigger on the riv.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-07-2012 , 08:00 PM
    Typically fishy players that call the turn in this spot are mentally 'committing' to the pot on the turn and probably calling any river. Don't get sophisticated with bad players just next time take this line with AK and show him the best hand and punish him for calling you down light. Play against his natural weaknesses which is he is a station. When you puke him chips like this it will take you longer to take his money...
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-08-2012 , 11:22 AM
    He does seem pretty weak unfortunately for you he could have any Ax hand that he is calling down with or a J or K. Just play straight forward against this dude because he is not folding very often. River is meh. Not the worst but not the greatest.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote
    04-08-2012 , 11:25 PM
    board texture is something that needs consideration.
    Attempted Bluff - Thoughts Quote

          
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