Fml volume will probably be low this month as GTA V on the PC is awesome

@Doctor
I like your analysis. You say we shouldn't fold this, but is this the bottom of our calling range?
I think betting small aces is fine OTT since KJ/KQ aren't folding, neither a draw. By checking turn we can really mess up the hand as the 3-bettor.

@grinder
that's a bit too theoretical I think. I prefer exploitative play.
If you plan to call any ace, you also need the opponent to bluff a lot. To increase bluffs I would add any other flush draw, (T9s-56s + T8s 97s etc.) and JTo/QJo for gut-shot.
Betting 3-streets with a gut-shot would be a big bluff, not everyone makes those, while he could get free street of equity vs KQ/KJ by checking.
With regards to bluffing with a weaker flush draw. Let's say I call down with AJ+ ATs 22, that's 21 combos.
He needs to fold out 21 combos. I'm unsure if I call KTs KJo QTs vs SB. Against this range he has a breakeven bluff with 67. If we give him T9, he would only fold 17 combos from this range given blockers.

So I don't think bluffing with a missed flush draw is very good. Not everyone folds trips there, but I'm one of the tighter regs.

I still think it's 50/50. I assume that my opponent is playing somewhat optimally so I make tight assumptions. On anonymous table, or vs unknown I would call ATs, maybe A9s.

I think we have different playing styles. I base pretty much everything I do off minimal defence frequencies, whether I'm at the top or bottom of my range etc (i.e. I don't make hero folds or hero calls, or even really consider what villain might have, I just look at my own cards and the board and where the hand fits into my range and make the appropriate action).

If you're only calling with 21 combinations total then you must be folding too much on one or more streets (probably to the initial 3bet or the flop cbet). Either that or you're mega tight OTB.

I'd say if you're going to overfold the river is probably the place to do it (since folding too much to 3bets is easily exploited, and folding too much on this flop will be bad as it's going to be cbet a massive amount by the player pool).

Personally I'd call with any ace though so I can't be exploited by 3 barrel bluffs.

bluff river in these two hands?

h1: vs reg with 75% cbet, xc looks a lot like middle/bottom pair. so that's why I didn't barrel turn. Would bet/check/bet line work here? His WTSD is 23% so he is quite nitty OTR, so I think we should stab a lot here.

Microgaming - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 268 BB (VPIP: 26.04, PFR: 19.14, 3Bet Preflop: 8.84, Hands: 2,810)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 23.70, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 3,507)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
CO: 66 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 66.67, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 2

fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 5 3 T
SB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, SB calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) 5
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (13 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero checks



h2: vs reg anon tables. I made CREV review on the spot, and if he calls any Qx, but folds Jx, we have slightly profitable bluff.

Microgaming - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 93.93 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 104.28 BB
UTG: 123.1 BB
MP: 213.27 BB
CO: 116.03 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 K

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) J 3 Q
SB bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, SB calls 6.5 BB

River: (26 BB, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks

H2:he might not bet Jx otf so that could reduce the number of combos that fold to your river bet and i doubt he's ever folding Qx in these positions so i like the give up.

What can you do when you open LP get called by an unknown BB (reggish looking) cbet a K66 flop and get raised? Obv he can have 6x but most the times he's full of it. Do you just take a note a move on and not cbet air in spots like that in future vs that opponent.

I might consider checking back flop in H1 since we quite often have the best hand, but not sure if that's good or not.

H2 I think give up OTR.

H1 I like checking down or 3 barrelling

H2 could this be a bluff combo we raise flop with? There won't need to be many as we don't have much value here but we block some combos he's going to cbet or be able to call a raise with, and we can fire a lot of turns and rivers

At first I thought KT would make a better bluff, but we should have enough equity there to make a profitable call, especially against a half pot bet.

So yeah K9 looks good as a raise, assuming we raise QJ only on this flop for value.

@Fish

The thing here is that V doesn't need to be overbluffing or be even close to balanced to make Ax profitable calls as the blocker effect is so strong.

Thoughts on betting turn and shoving river for value? I'd play a set in the same way, he can call pretty light because all draws missed.

Lose to AA, KK, QQ and he'll never fold river with them now. We beat JJ-TT and 9x but it depends how much of a station he is. 97s and sets beat us but I think they get shoved OTF a fair bit.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 94.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 412 BB (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
UTG: 85 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: 256.5 BB (VPIP: 26.79, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 58)
CO: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 3 players) 4 7 9
SB checks, CO bets 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, CO calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (35 BB, 2 players) Q
CO checks, Hero bets 25.5 BB, CO calls 25.5 BB

River: (86 BB, 2 players) 2
CO checks, Hero bets 58.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 33 BB and is all-in

I assume he's a weaker player so definitely jamming for value.
They tend to call light when the draw misses.

For same reason I would 3-bet preflop.

@Dunna
Yeah I like a bluff raise there. I think QJ3r is going to get cbet bluffed quite a lot.


Take a note and adjust later. If you have a read that the population is bluffing a lot there, you could try something tricky yourself.

So practically it's just about whether villain is capable of bluffing? I still think that AK2A4 texture is not getting bluffed that often.

I took some time off of playing, but Unibet tempted me back with a 4 euro ticket I earned as a bonus last month. I decided to shortstack it up.

[x] Get 4 euros of free money.
[x] See 325 flops.
[x] Win at 39bb/100
[?] Rub 31 euros on titties.



Now I'm wondering if I should switch allegiances and go and win the Sunday Storm. #PingItUp

Anyone want to give feedback on this hand analysis?
I'm being stupid and playing 400nl, and that's motivating me to work my ass off.

Microgaming - €4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 218.93 BB
UTG: 172.45 BB
CO: 221.71 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 82.55 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 9

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (20.5 BB, 2 players) 5 K J
Hero bets 12 BB, CO calls 12 BB

Turn: (44.5 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, CO bets 29 BB, fold



Unsure what ranges look like CO vs BB. We're 200bb deep so he has suited connectors and possibly AK.
K and J being same suit reduces RIO a lot. Only if he has 55 then there's flush vs boat opportunity. Less flush draws with those cards and us having 9
If we xc, we could get a bluff from straight draws on river. Worst case scenario is if villain doesn't value bet thinly on flush card.

Conclusion: 4 is a bad barrelling card, a brick. We could try and realize free equity (vs Jx), but we lose the hand with 9-high.
Combination wise I don't think we should bet unless we plan to triple barrel, since there is no fold equity on the turn. He might not fold gut-shot to a turn bet this deep. So I don't hate a check. Check/calling works only if villain can bluff the river with missed straight draw.
This is villains range OTT, assuming he calls KQ, AQ and AK but folds AJo/KJo pre. Both QQ and AK are debatable this deep. QQ would add more 2nd pair hands to this equation.
He has few weaker flush draws. More than 3 better flush draws being: AT QT AQ and possibly A5 or below.

2nd step would be to analyze every river card.

^^

In terms of implied odds. I don't think villain is calling 3 streets with TP when flush hits. AKx being the only exception.
Range we would have implied odds against is: AKx (3), KJs (3) and 55 (3). He has few worse flush draws and 3-6 better flush draws.
We also have implied odds when we both hit. Like T comes and we hit our flush and villain makes straight with AQ. Or A comes and villains QT completes.
But that's still very low edge to be had.

In terms of river bluffing cards, Kx is actually good. Any other broadway is bad, if we want to play safe and have a reasonable safety margin on our bluff. On average 55.6% of his range has hit on a 9/T/J/Q/A. On average 40.3% of his range has hit on <8x-2x, giving us ~60% fold equity.
Don't want to analyze the hand any further, think that's enough
Next step would be to calculate the EV of bluffing turn + riv.

I hate the 3-bet pre. I'm pretty sure it's the worst option unless villain has a very high fold to 3-bet. Calling might be breakeven (it's an easy call vs a 2.5x), but I think I like a fold vs a 3x.
Since you're deep, he can call with a very wide range of hands that have you in bad shape. I wouldn't rule out jacks or even kings, as well as a bunch of suited aces and suited connectors/Broadways and pairs.
That said, if you're betting the flop (which you should), you pretty much have to barrel the turn.
You have sets, top two, AA, AK, KQ in your value range, so FDs with no SDV (plus QTs) are classic candidates for balancing your value triple barrels. FWIW, Snowie thinks low river cards would be the best for betting. You can give up on any card J or higher.

Ok month so far. Might hit the bankroll to move into $15 sit and goes fully. Shot takes have went well so far.

@Arty
Thanks for feedback. There was a fish who spewed off couple of stacks, and that screwed up my game, not used to playing deep. We had discussion about 3-betting while deep stacked in my PGC. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...3/index32.html
I could work on that hand a little bit more, figure out what's the EV of triple barrelling.

Pretty sure the 3-bet with 96s is OK.

I would 3bet too and barrel on the turn. Otr I always give up.

3betting is absolutely fine at 100bb. Not really a huge fan this deep.

It's a great thread, with some amazing progress. I subscribed a while ago, and read all the updates. You post some very interesting hands, but it would take me all day to work out optimal ranges for every spot. I wish I had the time!

coming back from a 68 chip to 2930 disadvantage, chat makes it even better

kinzite: o
kinzite: m
kinzite: g
kinzite: fker
kinzite: oups
kinzite: loool
kinzite: ......
kinzite: u r garbage
kinzite: why dont u stik to nlh
Dealer: IronTamer shows [8c 7s 4h 8s]
kinzite: bravo
Dealer: kinzite shows three of a kind, Twos
Dealer: IronTamer shows a full house, Twos full of Eights
Dealer: IronTamer wins the pot (2,016) with a full house, Twos full of Eights
kinzite: die
kinzite: die
kinzite (Observer): die
kinzite (Observer): die
kinzite (Observer): id
kinzite (Observer): eid

bonus hand for day hem still does not convert

Full Tilt Poker Game #35504795691: $50 Heads-Up Sit & Go (292970348), Table 1 - NL Hold'em - 15/30 - 15:47:44 ET - 2015/04/22
Seat 1: Fourduece92 (1,560)
Seat 2: IronTamer (1,440)
Fourduece92 posts the small blind of 15
IronTamer posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IronTamer [As 3s]
Fourduece92 raises to 60
IronTamer calls 30
*** FLOP *** [7d Ks 7s] (Total Pot: 120, 2 Players)
IronTamer checks
Fourduece92 bets 60
IronTamer calls 60
*** TURN *** [7d Ks 7s] [2s] (Total Pot: 240, 2 Players)
IronTamer checks
Fourduece92 checks
*** RIVER *** [7d Ks 7s 2s] [6h] (Total Pot: 240, 2 Players)
IronTamer checks
Fourduece92 bets 300
IronTamer has 15 seconds left to act
IronTamer has requested TIME
IronTamer raises to 1,320, and is all in
Fourduece92 calls 1,020
*** SHOW DOWN ***
IronTamer shows [As 3s] a flush, Ace high
Fourduece92 mucks
IronTamer wins the pot (2,880) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,880 | Rake 0
Board: [7d Ks 7s 2s 6h]
Seat 1: Fourduece92 (small blind) mucked [9d 6s] - two pair, Sevens and Sixes
Seat 2: IronTamer (big blind) showed [As 3s] and won (2,880) with a flush, Ace high

Wow. Just wow. You must be really good at flipping!