@Stude: Bigger pre. When there's overcallers if you squeeze 3x you give villains great odds to call. Thus, you can't remove sets from his range completely on the flop.

However, I'm not sure you really did put him on Ax or a FD - if so, why would you not jam the flop? Vs his actual range, your line is best IMO, but he will stack off and be behind with basically all of the range you gave him.

Well, my thought process went like:
What would he call my squeeze with?
77 - probably not
22 - probably not
AA/KK - no, he'd reraise
QQ/JJ/TT - probably
KQs/KJs/QJs - possibly
AK/AQ/ATs - yes, most likely given his stats
What would he raise with?
AK/AQ/AT
KQs
Is he likely to have 2 pair?
Not really.

I suppose a FD is most unlikely.

Why did I not jam flop?
Because I'm a nitmeister.

Thanks for the idea and kick starting me out to get a avatar haha!


@dillchips Well Singapore is always warm and sunny.

march results, its so ugly

Okay, let's look at whether he's calling your squeeze with low-to-mid PPs. He has immediate pot-odds of just over 2.5-1, and stack odds of just under 16-1. This is normally not quite enough to call preflop. However, there are a couple of factors you should bring into consideration:

1) If he calls, BTN is likely to come along too, thus improving his immediate odds and the chance he'll stack someone postflop if he connects.
2) Your range is pretty strong (he probably has enough hands on you to estimate that you won't necessarily be 3betting JJ or AQ in this spot, and rarely 3betting light), so he's much more likely to stack you postflop if he connects.
3) People tend to play straight-forward in 3bet pots so it's likely he can float a bunch of low flops and take the pot away from your AK (not sure if he's thinking on this level).

Anything wrong here, almost quit after this hand.
AQo + SB = not 3-betting pre. Flop is either FPS or trying to make villain double barrel. On turn TJ is the worst case scenario imo. After raising i'm committed and cant fold.
Villain was 34/21/2.1af

2.5k hands is not a good sample to say your results are ugly. You can start to moan once you hit a 10k hand DS.

Probably squeezing pre. Calling ranges are wider because they're IP which is good for us - I'd be less happy to squeeze this from the BTN.

C/r this flop 3-way, it's fairly wet and we can get value from a whole bunch of hands. Probably just flatting turn and river as played, not sure if villain continues vs a raise with QJ and KQ/JT improved to beat us.

This.

OP, you are far too attached to the money won/lost.

First - most players are losers. This is the default, and to be expected unless you are significantly better than average. Are you significantly better than average do you think ?

Second - your sample size is too small to mean much of anything


You need to play more and work on your game.

Analyse hands played after the event - not coolers where your KK lost to AA, or for that matter bad beats where your AA lost to KK. Hands where you lost more than you should have, or won less than you should have, or the action and outcome confused or surprised you.

You need to stop complaining about losing $5.

whoops. Happy belated birthday!


My goals for this month:
[ ] Spend more time analyzing hands here
[ ] Don't perma tilt off roll like in February

Don't have many goals though, finals are coming up in May, and please one time let me get admitted to medical school. After finals I'll be creating a pg&c thread (like another one of those lame, 5nl to robusto threads). glgl fellas!

OK, so trying to work on spots where I'm maybe only leaking a few bbs, but they're obviously all adding up.

How do you guys play hands like this?

Villain is 44/11 but only over 9 hand sample.

Flop bet doesn't give me pot odds to call, and can't say I'm getting implied odds either as I have literally no clue of villain's range here. He could have QQ and be scared of the K, or he could have top set and be betting small coz that's what fish do when they actually hit a hand

I'd fold pre tbh. maybe if I'm IP I'd limp to set mine just cause we're so deep.

After 9 hands, fold. What exactly do you think his UTG range will be?

Hmmm, or he could have nothing at all, which is why he makes that fishbet.

It is definitely possible that I am just a spaz in these situations, but those tiny bets always make me look for a reason NOT to raise.

I may have been c/f there, but I could very well decide to c/r instead when he bets <20% psb.

Any realistic range you can put villain on in that situation has you beat. It takes reads to play 77 against an UTG raise with two overcards and a flush draw on the flop.

I'm sure there is value in that spot when you have reads & have a very solid poker game, however sometimes you have to accept you have 0 reads and not enough skill and fold. If the only card we feel comfortable with on the turn is a 7 then we don't want to continue. We at least need to know we can stack villain off if we hit a 7 ott, which after 9 hands we don't.

Something I've noticed is that villain is much more likely to have the nuts when betting 2bb than 1bb.

Yeah pretty much agree with this. It just feels so damned weak!

Call pre to setmine obv, and as he seems to have a tight raising range I figure if I hit I'll prob stack him if he has any kind of value hand.

I guess without the odds we have to be disciplined and fold there. Even if I ch/raise the flop, he's a fish so he'll still likely continue with almost all of his entire range so I just get left wondering if he has a draw or is slowplaying

Problem is, I also see NITs do this, although I think they do it far more for value as they usually bomb the turn after that

Lolrandoms!

What does his betsizing mean. Is it for value ?

If it is common for a <20% psb to be a value bet at 10NL then fine.

You say his range has us crushed. What is his range for continuing vs a c/r ?

How many of his aces and pairs do you think you fold out ?

Here's another one that has me confused from a few days ago.

What is your play here?

Villain is a TAG. 19/17/6.7 with AF of 8 over 281 hand sample.
He has not called any of the 5 times he's been 3bet. He has folded twice and 4bet 3 times, which leads to my pf call as I'm happy playing this hand IP here.

I think in hindsight I could have just called pre, but w/e

Flop we are getting about 1.8:1

After 9 hands I have very little clue what is range is and whether he is a rubbish or not.

Any king has us beat, any jack has us beat 88+ has us beat, 22 has us beat.

Hence I'm happy to fold and wait till after reads, alternatively we can turn out hand into a bluff and try and get him to fold but I don't see the value in this unless we have reads.

Can he continue with 88 ?

How many kings are in an utg range ?

Can he continue with AJ ?

With position, yes. If you don't think I'm right put forward a range that you think villain can realistically have and then stove it and see where we stand.

KJ+ is definitely in villains range imo too

I think it has us beat and even if we call what cards do we like? 7. That's it. Unless we want to start bluffing against an unknown which is not a good idea.

It's very villain specific. I've worked from the rule for fishies that minbets are bluffs and 2-5bb is for value.

We don't need to stove it, because we don't have to have the best hand to win the pot.

He may have a bunch of hands that are better than ours which he can't continue with.

If you are the villain there, do you call a flop c/r with AJ ?

Level 1 is all about what are my cards, are they good enough to win ? Beyond that it is what do I represent here, and can the villain continue with enough of his range to make my raise unprofitable. I am not intending to get to showdown and hope 77 is good here.

As I said before, if a bet that small is likely to be pure value at 10NL - AK,KJ, KQ, KK, AA - then fair enough.

We most definitely cannot call on this flop, btw.

This isn't a spot we should be check raising just for the sake of trying to take the pot down, which was covered in my turning 77 into a bluff. We need to know that villain can fold which I don't think we can assume.