Quote:
Originally Posted by nismo9
If we raise now we are blowing up a pot that we are losing or taking down one that we are ahead in. We have position so if we call we can see the turn card, how it might affect his range and see his actions and then evaluate. If we raise he either calls (horrible spot to be in on turn), raises (we have to fold our equity), or folds (not such a bad outcome but we might lose some value that we could make on later streets). True, he could catch up later, but all these factors outweigh.
Ok, here's where I'm confused then: So what if the pot is bloated? We aren't putting any more money in if he calls anyways, and, eventually, to win this pot, unless we check all the way to the showdown, we have to bet. So we either blow up the pot now, when there's a greater chance he's behind and will fold, or later, when we bet the turn (assuming he checks as in the example).
I guess I'm wondering, that if this player is so tight that we're scared to raise a c-bet after a pre-flop 3bet, then why did we call in the first place? It makes no sense to call that with no intention of playing back. By just calling, we've bloated a pot we're now going to have to bet at to win, with a hand that isn't likely to improve. I just don't see how a smooth call gives an advantage to anyone but the villain here.
The best case scenario I see, is that we call, the villain doesn't improve on the turn (assuming he's behind) and we bet and take it down. We profit the same amount with about the same amount risked (assuming we'll need to bet a sizeable amount to dissaude any draw from calling).