I'm running 10 BI above EV over 30k hands. Is this normal or am I running extremely good? I'm guessing that as I play a lot of hands all in EV and my winnings line will be equal. Does this mean I'm set for a huge downswong?

[x] huge downswong imo

well 30 BI above EV over 30K hands is a standard variance, you can be happy variance hit you the right way!

sooner or later its gonna catch up to me right? >.<

Not neccessarily true. Make sure you update all in EV. All in EV is a pretty bad stat to eye imo

Not necessarily. The more hands you play the more likely it is that you'll run at ev though.

10 buyins over Ev in 30K hands looks like a pretty standard upswing, I wouldn't say you're running THAT hot.

Poker is random. What happens in the past has no influence on what happens next, so no, you're not "set" for a downswing.

+1, the allin EV line is very often very very misleading.

What exactly does the all in ev line actually mean, i know i feel good when i'm ahead of it but i'm not sure exactly why.

the EV line is your emotional value. The higher it is the better you feel and the lower it is the worse you feel.

+1 for humor
-1 for stupid answer

Sorry, I have a stupid sense of humor and I don't care very much for the use of the ev line. I think it's stupid!

lol didn't exactly mean it...BUT:
lim( hands --> inf ) P (EV line = winnings line) = 1

why do i feel so sad?

how do u say? it's not an exact indication of how good ur running?

basically, its meaningless when you are running above EV and its the reason for your losses if you dont. At least thats how it works for me.

I have no idea what any of this means.

Its almost never even a slightly good indication of how well you're running. It does not take an opponents range into account, which is what you are really playing against. Over time your opponents range will converge but that takes a long time.

Wouldn't a player constantly run above EV if he constantly played against worse players.

Not all in EV

All in EV, I'm pretty sure is the amount of money you put into the pot when you were ahead. So if you are playing bad players and shoving in with AA and KK and they have 99 or 55 you are running even with EV.

I think it takes into account if you shove even after the flop. So you shove with 2 pair and they have middle pair and they don't get a miracle with the rest of the cards, again you are running even as far as EV is concerned.

Sort of..

The assumption is Hero always gets the money in ahead of his opponent, and since %'s will play out in your favor over the long run, you probably will see a positive EV correlation.

So lets say were playing vs some dude who will stack off with any pair on the flop. We shove any flop where we can beat middle pair, and fold if we can't.

Over an short period we will win more pots as an equity favorite, but our adjusted EV should be below EV.

Over an infinitely long period - you should run "at" EV regardless of who you play - it's just probabilities.

Yeah, if we are always ahead when we shove then our all in EV will say we are below what we should be.

If the poker programs wanted to do it right, wouldn't they do the calculation as say we shove in with AA and have 75 percent chance to win, then our EV all in money should be at 75 percent of what we put in the pot? I think that would give people a much better measurement on if they are running bad or not.

When you go in with AA you are 80 percent to win but that does mean 20 percent of the time you are going to lose, at least statistically anyway.

its not???

You don't actually have to go all in for all-in EV to get calculated. Basically it gets calculated whenever you actually get to see your opponent's cards.

That's exactly how it works. Basically it takes your chance to win on any given street, times the amount you put in (and others matched).


Overall its not a great stat to judge how well you're playing though, as it only considers the exact hand their holding, so doesn't consider ranges (villian has been shoving every hand last 20 hands, you call with QQ and they show up with AA? -80% EV). It also doesn't consider implied odds, folding tendencies, etc. All its really good for is seeing how variance is hitting you.

I am just the opposite, I am running TERRIBLE right now. For a 2000+ stretch right now I am running about 3 buy-ins below EV with only 2, few hand stretches in it running at EV and a couple much MUCH worse. My favorite is in deep stacked with a full house and he catches the ONLY out he has on the river, my EV shoots straight up my money won hit the basement and its only been more of the same. I would LOVE for a hot streak.

2k hands is nothing. when u run hot for 30k hands u feel invincible.

Uh guys, no. Players in general should run close to EV. That's why it's called expected value.

Having run great before does not mean that you will run bad in the future, nor does running bad means you will run better later, or that you're "due". This is pretty basic gambler's fallacy.

All-in EV simply means how much your equity has been every time you went all in, and how it compares to the results. If your all-in EV is lower, then that means you've been winning all-in situations more than the mathematical expectation, which means you're probably, in that specific aspect, running fairly good. That's all there is to.

FYP, +1.