green line at 25$, yellow line at roughly 8$ - yes, by winning KK vs A5s you are running over EV
to calculate EV line, you multiply the total pot by your equity, then substract you stack, so (50*0.66)-25
What I don't understand is, if we're winning 66% of the time, shouldn't our yellow line be 66% of the net-win of $25. So we win 66%*$25= ~17 and lose 33%*$25= ~8.
So green line would be $25, yellow-line would be $17; we over-realize by 33% which results in the green line being $8 over the yellow-line.
66% of the time we win $25 -- 25 x .66 = 16
33% of the time we lose $25 -- -25 x .33 = -8
16 - 8 = 8, so our evline will be +$8.
Another way to do this math that might be more intuitive:
66% of the time we end the hand with $50. 33% of the time we end the hand with $0.
$50 x .66 = 33 (+$0 x .33, which is 0 obviously). We started the hand with $25. $33-$25 = +$8.
Last edited by Duncelanas; 05-18-2023 at 05:33 AM.
green line at 25$, yellow line at roughly 8$ - yes, by winning KK vs A5s you are running over EV
to calculate EV line, you multiply the total pot by your equity, then substract you stack, so (50*0.66)-25
You run over EV pretty much any time you win a pot, regardless of the hands involved. There are no spots in hold ‘em analogous to the pat full house vs pat flush spot in five card draw where you have a 100% chance of winning. Since you always have some nonzero chance of losing a hand when you decide to play it, your EV will always be lower than the profit you actually make when you win the pot.
