As you probably know, AKs and AQs are generally rated in the top 3%-4% by most rating systems. The probability of a flopping a flush draw or flush with those hands is 9.6% so out of 89 hands you should have gotten 8 or 9 draws or flushes. The chance of getting 2 or less is about 0.007. Either you have been extremely unlucky or the data is unreliable.
I’ll let other discuss strategy but I will say this. If you have a flush draw on the turn with those hands, an EV implied odds analysis I did showed you generally need implied odds of less than 10 to 1 to call a turn bet that is -EV at that point. The model I used includes reverse implied odds and the possiblility villain doesn’t call a river bet if you hit.
Say, the turn pot is 10 and villain makes a half pot bet. You need equity of 25% to make the call and the draw only gives you about 20%. If you hit the river flush and if villain will call your bet, say 50% on the time, and if your flush wins 80% of the time, you need implied odds of 6.5 to 1 meaning you should call the turn if you can make a bet of least 18.
Details on the model applied to flush draws can be found here:
https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/p...sh-draw-part-3
Last edited by statmanhal; 05-24-2019 at 11:11 AM.